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Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market
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RobF
Posts: 1627
Joined: Aug. 24 2017
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RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the ... (in reply to estebanana)
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I remember a post on here many years ago where a member was advertising an old Barbero that he was ‘representing’. He described the experience of playing the guitar as akin to driving a supercharged Bentley. I remember thinking what a pretentious bit of codswallop, absolutely nobody reading this forum, including the guy making the comparison, has ever driven one of those. Then I realized…that’s the point. It was a subtle way of telling us that this wasn’t for us, it was reserved for those for whom the idea of getting behind the wheel of a priceless antique racer was in the realm of possibility. It was all about using the rich man’s flex to pump the market. But it was also a reminder to those who were not in that exclusive club to know their place. Joe Bonamassa was discussing the market in one of his interviews. In this case he wasn’t discussing his priceless collection of Les Pauls but, instead, how even some pedals were becoming crazy expensive. His take was that when he was younger things like pedals and the like would become desirable after someone would mention them in a magazine interview or the like and then people who read about it would search them out. They were rare, but obtainable. Now, with the internet, someone mentions a rare pedal and it seems the entire world then wants one, and they want it yesterday. Which leads to things like original Klon pedals going for tens of thousands of dollars. So, not only the unbalance of wealth, but the immediacy of today’s interconnected world. I started the article, but need to find more time, it’s a long one. I get uncomfortable reading about the world of the extremely wealthy and how they choose to spend their money. I get all conflicted.
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Date Oct. 7 2023 13:22:46
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estebanana
Posts: 9413
Joined: Oct. 16 2009
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RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the ... (in reply to RobF)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: RobF quote:
ORIGINAL: Firefrets I'm too busy to read all of that, as it's as long as a book, but a quick 'control + F' and entering the word 'guitar' brought up zero results, so how is it guitar related? I think it’s because rare guitars can be seen as just another commodity in the realm of the collector. Not just art, but wristwatches, fossils, stolen artifacts, anything that can be traded. A lot of it recently came out of money laundering, tax evasion and changing crypto wealth into tradable goods. It’s pumped the value (if that’s the right word) of certain objects into the stratosphere. I can easily see how certain guitars can enter that category. For sure the sunburst Les Pauls from the late 50s are already there. What I’m surmising is that we haven’t seen anything yet. Sure a celebrity player Les Paul can go for ridiculous amounts of money, but I think the money will eventually get into the realm of stupidly ridiculous. That’s not going to change much for us at our level, but it might affect the situation with study access to some instruments. I could be wrong, but probably not.
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https://www.stephenfaulkguitars.com
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Date Oct. 7 2023 15:58:55
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RobF
Posts: 1627
Joined: Aug. 24 2017
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RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the ... (in reply to Ricardo)
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I think it’s more the funnelling of wealth and the creation of wealth out of thin air that’s doing it. In this case, the rich aren’t innocent victims being deprived of their hard earned money, it’s more like they are legitimatizing gains through the use of tangible objects. I’m not trying to engage in class warfare or the like, but I don’t see how the imbalances that have become so evident post-pandemic can continue much longer. There was an enormous transfer of wealth under the guise of economic stimulus during the pandemic and, in my country at least, there was very little accounting for where the money went. Pandemic ends and the proxy wars start up and the transfers continue. So, when somebody has a sh*load of money (on paper) that won’t have value if the whole house of cards comes crashing down, they’re going to want to move that into something they can touch and trade. It’s always been that way, they aren’t getting ripped off, they know wealth is all about proportions of ownership. It doesn’t matter how much money or stuff you have, as long as it’s more than what the person beside you has. The devaluation of currencies happening right now is a direct way to capture the wealth of ‘ordinary’ people and move the actual ownership of real assets into the hands of the wealthy. But I don’t know, I actually don’t spend that much time thinking about this as I figure we’re already pretty well f*cked.
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Date Oct. 7 2023 18:28:44
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RobF
Posts: 1627
Joined: Aug. 24 2017
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RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the ... (in reply to estebanana)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: estebanana … Once a group of billionaires latches onto collecting something, they work to drive up the price ( like any crooked market strategy) but they are doing it on a scale that is billions and billions in trade. The extreme example is the attributed Leonardo da Vinci painting that showed up on the market five years ago and was bought by an oligarch - the price was over 400 million dollars, for a painting that art historians doubt is an actual Leonardo. The price was inflated to create wealth for the buyer. What I’m saying is that someday a Torres or a Les Paul will catch the attention of this sector of trade and will sell for 100 million and be out of reach of normal guitar loving collectors. I think we’re saying the same thing, except you didn’t manage to come across like a ranting conspiracy theorist about it like I was able to do. I also think you’re on the mark in what you’re suggesting, including the prediction about certain raw materials becoming collectable. It’s just I think it’s more symptomatic of a disease, rather than of some form of natural progression, and that makes me think it’s not sustainable. From the other thread: “ In 25 more years BR will not be wood anymore, it will be a form of currency and worth much more than it is now. It likely more valuable if it’s Not used to build guitars, but left as a potential material which serves as a form of material that has value as a currency.” I think that’s true. I think it’s already happened, in as much as its value is now more tied to its potential, which moves it into the realm of currency.
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Date Oct. 8 2023 2:44:59
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estebanana
Posts: 9413
Joined: Oct. 16 2009
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RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the ... (in reply to RobF)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: RobF quote:
ORIGINAL: estebanana … Once a group of billionaires latches onto collecting something, they work to drive up the price ( like any crooked market strategy) but they are doing it on a scale that is billions and billions in trade. The extreme example is the attributed Leonardo da Vinci painting that showed up on the market five years ago and was bought by an oligarch - the price was over 400 million dollars, for a painting that art historians doubt is an actual Leonardo. The price was inflated to create wealth for the buyer. What I’m saying is that someday a Torres or a Les Paul will catch the attention of this sector of trade and will sell for 100 million and be out of reach of normal guitar loving collectors. I think we’re saying the same thing, except you didn’t manage to come across like a ranting conspiracy theorist about it like I was able to do. I also think you’re on the mark in what you’re suggesting, including the prediction about certain raw materials becoming collectable. It’s just I think it’s more symptomatic of a disease, rather than of some form of natural progression, and that makes me think it’s not sustainable. From the other thread: “ In 25 more years BR will not be wood anymore, it will be a form of currency and worth much more than it is now. It likely more valuable if it’s Not used to build guitars, but left as a potential material which serves as a form of material that has value as a currency.” I think that’s true. I think it’s already happened, in as much as its value is now more tied to its potential, which moves it into the realm of currency. There was a profile of a well known American guitar maker in the Guild publication about 20 years ago. He recently, 2 years ago, sold off a part of his collection of BR. In the interview in the GAL quarterly he said once you collect all the tools you need for building guitars there’s not much left to write off as a shop expense on your taxes every year. ( it takes what 5 years to pull all your major tools together? ) He then says what’s the most expensive material you can buy every year to have a shop supply expense to write off on your taxes? Brazilian Rosewood is the answer. So while many builders desire to supply their customers with this fine wood as a guitar making material, it also serves the guitar maker as a form of guitar making gold. Your major tools, sander, band saw, table saw ect. will likely not go up in value, right? But Brazilian rosewood will not only hold its already premium value, but it will increase in value. And if you sell it off before you retire ( or pass it to your family as part of your shop in the case of legacy guitar making families) you will not have to worry about your family paying any capital gains tax on your estate - if you have enough BR and I know makers who do, you could be holding tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars in BR. In that sense it’s like a retirement fund if you get in on it early. The way I see BR is that yes huh can make pretty fine guitars with it, but why waste it on a guitar when it’s more valuable as a retirement fund? You can make good guitars out of Cypress or several other woods. Wait until the Brazilian becomes even more valuable. The question is, at what point in your career does it become more profitable to sell the guitar set of Brazilian as is, instead of adding your labor to it to make a guitar? Isn’t it easier to just sell after holding it for twenty five or thirty years? 😂 I digress, but I’ve never been much of a clear thinker. 😂 I just find the Larry Gagosian type dealer interesting, he’s a bit disgusting in that he’s willing to try to sell one collectors painting to another collector without telling collector #1 he’s trying to sell his art to collector # 2 with out his consent. You have to read of listen to the whole article. But I already know sleazy guitar peddlers in San Francisco who do this at street level. I know skeezy guys with their own small shops or collections who try to sell instruments belonging to others and cut themselves in as a connection maker. The hubris of Gagosian is notable to the point that he’s an unusual phenomenon, he’s ultra intelligent, ultra sleazy and ultra shameless. Most great guitar dealers we work with have some scruples, most are trying their best to be honest. What I’m wondering is when will there be a Gagosian in guitar dealing? Not the venerable mostly honest guys we know now who deal, but when does the billionaire money confident royal sleazebucket arrive?
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https://www.stephenfaulkguitars.com
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Date Oct. 8 2023 6:59:26
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RobF
Posts: 1627
Joined: Aug. 24 2017
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RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the ... (in reply to Ricardo)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Ricardo And in regard to “creating wealth out of thin air”, I am sorry but I don’t see the difference between super rich people doing it and used car dealers, or even me, selling my guitar playing to people…something I am perfectly happy doing at home for free. I do not envy the rich at all, nor do I blame them for being so, etc. The divide is relative to our times, no different than all of history. Genetic bottle necks prove it has always been a thing for 10s of thousands of years, ever since the first magic concept of “money value” was invented. Suddenly there needed to be categories for how much food costs. Nothing is changing. I think the crypto thing could be an example. In reality that’s more like a Ponzi scheme of sorts rather than actually creating wealth out of thin air, but there was a flurry of activity in collector markets during the pandemic that was fuelled by people moving crypto gains into tangible objects. Cashing out, really. People who were trading in the objects got very wealthy, some grey market wristwatch dealers being examples. Stock market bubbles can have the same effect, too, that might be a better example, actually. Maybe the expression itself is flawed, but it wasn’t intended to mean regular earnings, etc…
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Date Oct. 9 2023 3:22:12
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Ricardo
Posts: 15151
Joined: Dec. 14 2004
From: Washington DC
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RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the ... (in reply to RobF)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: RobF quote:
ORIGINAL: Ricardo And in regard to “creating wealth out of thin air”, I am sorry but I don’t see the difference between super rich people doing it and used car dealers, or even me, selling my guitar playing to people…something I am perfectly happy doing at home for free. I do not envy the rich at all, nor do I blame them for being so, etc. The divide is relative to our times, no different than all of history. Genetic bottle necks prove it has always been a thing for 10s of thousands of years, ever since the first magic concept of “money value” was invented. Suddenly there needed to be categories for how much food costs. Nothing is changing. I think the crypto thing could be an example. In reality that’s more like a Ponzi scheme of sorts rather than actually creating wealth out of thin air, but there was a flurry of activity in collector markets during the pandemic that was fuelled by people moving crypto gains into tangible objects. Cashing out, really. People who were trading in the objects got very wealthy, some grey market wristwatch dealers being examples. Stock market bubbles can have the same effect, too, that might be a better example, actually. Maybe the expression itself is flawed, but it wasn’t intended to mean regular earnings, etc… Right. Well, I have a close friend who has some cash to burn. He lost about a million dollars on a crypto scam, but still Fs around with it. We sit back and laugh about it. But truth is, it is a problem for “them” not for us. Estebanan keeps asking if I read the article…I did, but I second guess myself and look again but it is as I expected. Rich people living in misery. I feel bad for them., but no it will not ever “turn the guitar market upside down”. Perhaps others read an article like that in envy, anger, fear about the future etc. Not me. I have already noticed women with babies boarding a plane in group 9 with me, while “rich” people board first and have a little divider to separate themselves from the rest of us on the plane. It is to hide their shame for paying exhorbitantly more for their stuff than they needed to. RIPPED OFF they were. even the flight attendant insisted on putting MY GUITAR in their overhead bag space area. Hilarious to me. What good is wealth like that when it is only about others having a piece of you?
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CD's and transcriptions available here: www.ricardomarlow.com
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Date Oct. 11 2023 13:59:40
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