Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Full Version)

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estebanana -> Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 7 2023 1:25:49)

I moved this topic here because it seems like it’s going to branch out- feel free to move your market comments here.

Dealing in the 1st degree, like premeditated murder, it’s premeditation on how to flip instruments for adrenaline rushes





It’s a two hour long essay if you read it. There’s a narrated version you can play -

Whatever happened in the art world is going to bleed into other art forms with salable work product objects.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/07/31/larry-gagosian-profile

Eventually the inevitable will happen, a Les Paul will fetch tens upon tens of millions of dollars at auction and the whole guitar market will turn inside out.



Firefrets -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 7 2023 13:06:05)

I'm too busy to read all of that, as it's as long as a book, but a quick 'control + F' and entering the word 'guitar' brought up zero results, so how is it guitar related?



RobF -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 7 2023 13:22:46)

I remember a post on here many years ago where a member was advertising an old Barbero that he was ‘representing’. He described the experience of playing the guitar as akin to driving a supercharged Bentley.

I remember thinking what a pretentious bit of codswallop, absolutely nobody reading this forum, including the guy making the comparison, has ever driven one of those. Then I realized…that’s the point. It was a subtle way of telling us that this wasn’t for us, it was reserved for those for whom the idea of getting behind the wheel of a priceless antique racer was in the realm of possibility. It was all about using the rich man’s flex to pump the market. But it was also a reminder to those who were not in that exclusive club to know their place.

Joe Bonamassa was discussing the market in one of his interviews. In this case he wasn’t discussing his priceless collection of Les Pauls but, instead, how even some pedals were becoming crazy expensive. His take was that when he was younger things like pedals and the like would become desirable after someone would mention them in a magazine interview or the like and then people who read about it would search them out. They were rare, but obtainable. Now, with the internet, someone mentions a rare pedal and it seems the entire world then wants one, and they want it yesterday. Which leads to things like original Klon pedals going for tens of thousands of dollars. So, not only the unbalance of wealth, but the immediacy of today’s interconnected world.

I started the article, but need to find more time, it’s a long one. I get uncomfortable reading about the world of the extremely wealthy and how they choose to spend their money. I get all conflicted.



RobF -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 7 2023 13:29:44)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Firefrets

I'm too busy to read all of that, as it's as long as a book, but a quick 'control + F' and entering the word 'guitar' brought up zero results, so how is it guitar related?


I think it’s because rare guitars can be seen as just another commodity in the realm of the collector. Not just art, but wristwatches, fossils, stolen artifacts, anything that can be traded. A lot of it recently came out of money laundering, tax evasion and changing crypto wealth into tradable goods. It’s pumped the value (if that’s the right word) of certain objects into the stratosphere. I can easily see how certain guitars can enter that category. For sure the sunburst Les Pauls from the late 50s are already there.



estebanana -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 7 2023 15:53:16)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Firefrets

I'm too busy to read all of that, as it's as long as a book, but a quick 'control + F' and entering the word 'guitar' brought up zero results, so how is it guitar related?



If you’re not into it, then you’re not into it. It’s a long engaging essay about the art market and how it’s developed in one area under a handful of high end dealers. It will not have any real effect on how you or I engage in guitar repair and selling, or our interest in the various cultures around different kinds of guitars.

There is an audiobook version on the website that I think is still free. If you don’t want to read it, you could listen to it. If you’re not interested in that then, well ok.



estebanana -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 7 2023 15:58:55)

quote:

ORIGINAL: RobF

quote:

ORIGINAL: Firefrets

I'm too busy to read all of that, as it's as long as a book, but a quick 'control + F' and entering the word 'guitar' brought up zero results, so how is it guitar related?


I think it’s because rare guitars can be seen as just another commodity in the realm of the collector. Not just art, but wristwatches, fossils, stolen artifacts, anything that can be traded. A lot of it recently came out of money laundering, tax evasion and changing crypto wealth into tradable goods. It’s pumped the value (if that’s the right word) of certain objects into the stratosphere. I can easily see how certain guitars can enter that category. For sure the sunburst Les Pauls from the late 50s are already there.



What I’m surmising is that we haven’t seen anything yet. Sure a celebrity player Les Paul can go for ridiculous amounts of money, but I think the money will eventually get into the realm of stupidly ridiculous. That’s not going to change much for us at our level, but it might affect the situation with study access to some instruments. I could be wrong, but probably not.



Ricardo -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 7 2023 16:41:03)

quote:

It was all about using the rich man’s flex to pump the market. But it was also a reminder to those who were not in that exclusive club to know their place.


As I said in the other thread about it, that “know their place” thing pretends to be derogatory, when in REALITY, it is the required insulation, delicate baby pampering, that protects the “rich” people from realizing how badly they are getting screwed out of their money. Meanwhile, those of us not deluding ourselves regarding value of stuff find most of what we need in the dollar store. Estebanana seems to insinuate that “eventually” they will appropriate what we have today as “affordable” musical instruments will enter the high roller realm where we can’t even get “ripped off” because they exceed a realistic price point utterly. The example in the article is the description of an art piece that the “richest guy in the room” was not able to acquire even. Like going into the guitar museum and trying tons of “priceless” guitars “not for sale”….well…. I have done this, and not much going on better than yamaha. There are subtle details not even remotely worth the price difference. Building a guitar “from scratch” will always maintain the “hand built” price tag that separates it from the factory line as will a “gourmet burger” have to be more than twice the price of McDonalds. Sitting once with a group drinking dom perignon I was thinking this carbonated sweet wine is just as shyt as the bottle we get for $12 and mix with orange juice. The thing going on here is to “rip off” rich people, plain and simple.



RobF -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 7 2023 18:28:44)

I think it’s more the funnelling of wealth and the creation of wealth out of thin air that’s doing it. In this case, the rich aren’t innocent victims being deprived of their hard earned money, it’s more like they are legitimatizing gains through the use of tangible objects. I’m not trying to engage in class warfare or the like, but I don’t see how the imbalances that have become so evident post-pandemic can continue much longer. There was an enormous transfer of wealth under the guise of economic stimulus during the pandemic and, in my country at least, there was very little accounting for where the money went. Pandemic ends and the proxy wars start up and the transfers continue.

So, when somebody has a sh*load of money (on paper) that won’t have value if the whole house of cards comes crashing down, they’re going to want to move that into something they can touch and trade. It’s always been that way, they aren’t getting ripped off, they know wealth is all about proportions of ownership. It doesn’t matter how much money or stuff you have, as long as it’s more than what the person beside you has. The devaluation of currencies happening right now is a direct way to capture the wealth of ‘ordinary’ people and move the actual ownership of real assets into the hands of the wealthy.

But I don’t know, I actually don’t spend that much time thinking about this as I figure we’re already pretty well f*cked.



Richard Jernigan -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 8 2023 1:59:52)

quote:

ORIGINAL: estebanana
...the whole guitar market will turn inside out.


It might be argued that it already has. Among the four classical guitars I own, I put two at the top of the quality ranking.

I paid the least for one of them, the most for the other. The high priced one is a collector's item. The last price I saw for one by its maker was 18 times what I paid for the cheaper one. The dealer I bought it from tells me it is worth more than that, due to the date on the label.

The two instruments differ considerably in character. I think the expensive one is the better guitar, but only by a slim margin. I think a lot of people would prefer the cheaper one. It's much easier to play.

The prices mostly just reflect the names on the labels.

Among the nearly one-million inhabitants of my city there are probably around 30,000 whose household's net worth is the same or higher than mine. I bought the collector's item 23 years ago. I would never think of paying what it's worth now. There are enough people who are a lot better off than I am who seriously distort the guitar market already.

RNJ

P.S. The cheap one is spruce/Brazilian, the other is spruce/Indian.



estebanana -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 8 2023 2:07:05)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ricardo

quote:

It was all about using the rich man’s flex to pump the market. But it was also a reminder to those who were not in that exclusive club to know their place.


. Meanwhile, those of us not deluding ourselves regarding value of stuff find most of what we need in the dollar store. Estebanana seems to insinuate that “eventually” they will appropriate what we have today as “affordable” musical instruments will enter the high roller realm where we can’t even get “ripped off” because they exceed a realistic price point utterly.



No Ricky McRickenbacher TM*

That’s not what I’m getting at.

Here is the second title of the essay just above the authors name:

“The dealer has been so successful selling art to masters of the universe that he has become one of them.”

I don’t believe the culture around various genres of guitar and music that uses guitar will fundamentally change, nor will the accessibility to normally priced instruments. In the art world the value of most art is normal, from things you can buy from your friends or at local city art shows for under a few hundred dollars, to works that cost a few thousand dollars or upwards.

The guitar market will always have this. What I’m suggesting ( and what I’m pretty sure will happen within the next to decades) is that certain guitars already in high money markets will be amplified ( good pun) to price ranges that are exponentially higher than the where they are now. The process and methods implemented by a few collectors will create a market so expensive that these guitar objects will, like certain art, become place holders for money and will be manipulated by a handful of dealers. Likely they will be outsiders to the normal guitar market we all gawk at.

Did you listen to or read the whole article? You can think I’m bonkers, but Ive watched the art market since I was a teenager and I’m not talking jive.


Once a group of billionaires latches onto collecting something, they work to drive up the price ( like any crooked market strategy) but they are doing it on a scale that is billions and billions in trade. The extreme example is the attributed Leonardo da Vinci painting that showed up on the market five years ago and was bought by an oligarch - the price was over 400 million dollars, for a painting that art historians doubt is an actual Leonardo. The price was inflated to create wealth for the buyer.

What I’m saying is that someday a Torres or a Les Paul will catch the attention of this sector of trade and will sell for 100 million and be out of reach of normal guitar loving collectors.



RobF -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 8 2023 2:44:59)

quote:

ORIGINAL: estebanana

… Once a group of billionaires latches onto collecting something, they work to drive up the price ( like any crooked market strategy) but they are doing it on a scale that is billions and billions in trade. The extreme example is the attributed Leonardo da Vinci painting that showed up on the market five years ago and was bought by an oligarch - the price was over 400 million dollars, for a painting that art historians doubt is an actual Leonardo. The price was inflated to create wealth for the buyer.

What I’m saying is that someday a Torres or a Les Paul will catch the attention of this sector of trade and will sell for 100 million and be out of reach of normal guitar loving collectors.


I think we’re saying the same thing, except you didn’t manage to come across like a ranting conspiracy theorist about it like I was able to do. [:D]

I also think you’re on the mark in what you’re suggesting, including the prediction about certain raw materials becoming collectable. It’s just I think it’s more symptomatic of a disease, rather than of some form of natural progression, and that makes me think it’s not sustainable.

From the other thread: “ In 25 more years BR will not be wood anymore, it will be a form of currency and worth much more than it is now. It likely more valuable if it’s Not used to build guitars, but left as a potential material which serves as a form of material that has value as a currency.”

I think that’s true. I think it’s already happened, in as much as its value is now more tied to its potential, which moves it into the realm of currency.



estebanana -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 8 2023 6:59:26)

quote:

ORIGINAL: RobF

quote:

ORIGINAL: estebanana

… Once a group of billionaires latches onto collecting something, they work to drive up the price ( like any crooked market strategy) but they are doing it on a scale that is billions and billions in trade. The extreme example is the attributed Leonardo da Vinci painting that showed up on the market five years ago and was bought by an oligarch - the price was over 400 million dollars, for a painting that art historians doubt is an actual Leonardo. The price was inflated to create wealth for the buyer.

What I’m saying is that someday a Torres or a Les Paul will catch the attention of this sector of trade and will sell for 100 million and be out of reach of normal guitar loving collectors.


I think we’re saying the same thing, except you didn’t manage to come across like a ranting conspiracy theorist about it like I was able to do. [:D]

I also think you’re on the mark in what you’re suggesting, including the prediction about certain raw materials becoming collectable. It’s just I think it’s more symptomatic of a disease, rather than of some form of natural progression, and that makes me think it’s not sustainable.

From the other thread: “ In 25 more years BR will not be wood anymore, it will be a form of currency and worth much more than it is now. It likely more valuable if it’s Not used to build guitars, but left as a potential material which serves as a form of material that has value as a currency.”

I think that’s true. I think it’s already happened, in as much as its value is now more tied to its potential, which moves it into the realm of currency.



There was a profile of a well known American guitar maker in the Guild publication about 20 years ago. He recently, 2 years ago, sold off a part of his collection of BR. In the interview in the GAL quarterly he said once you collect all the tools you need for building guitars there’s not much left to write off as a shop expense on your taxes every year. ( it takes what 5 years to pull all your major tools together? ) He then says what’s the most expensive material you can buy every year to have a shop supply expense to write off on your taxes? Brazilian Rosewood is the answer.

So while many builders desire to supply their customers with this fine wood as a guitar making material, it also serves the guitar maker as a form of guitar making gold. Your major tools, sander, band saw, table saw ect. will likely not go up in value, right? But Brazilian rosewood will not only hold its already premium value, but it will increase in value. And if you sell it off before you retire ( or pass it to your family as part of your shop in the case of legacy guitar making families) you will not have to worry about your family paying any capital gains tax on your estate - if you have enough BR and I know makers who do, you could be holding tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars in BR.

In that sense it’s like a retirement fund if you get in on it early. The way I see BR is that yes huh can make pretty fine guitars with it, but why waste it on a guitar when it’s more valuable as a retirement fund? You can make good guitars out of Cypress or several other woods. Wait until the Brazilian becomes even more valuable. The question is, at what point in your career does it become more profitable to sell the guitar set of Brazilian as is, instead of adding your labor to it to make a guitar? Isn’t it easier to just sell after holding it for twenty five or thirty years? 😂

I digress, but I’ve never been much of a clear thinker. 😂

I just find the Larry Gagosian type dealer interesting, he’s a bit disgusting in that he’s willing to try to sell one collectors painting to another collector without telling collector #1 he’s trying to sell his art to collector # 2 with out his consent. You have to read of listen to the whole article. But I already know sleazy guitar peddlers in San Francisco who do this at street level. I know skeezy guys with their own small shops or collections who try to sell instruments belonging to others and cut themselves in as a connection maker.

The hubris of Gagosian is notable to the point that he’s an unusual phenomenon, he’s ultra intelligent, ultra sleazy and ultra shameless. Most great guitar dealers we work with have some scruples, most are trying their best to be honest. What I’m wondering is when will there be a Gagosian in guitar dealing? Not the venerable mostly honest guys we know now who deal, but when does the billionaire money confident royal sleazebucket arrive?



Ricardo -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 8 2023 18:35:09)

quote:

I don’t believe the culture around various genres of guitar and music that uses guitar will fundamentally change, nor will the accessibility to normally priced instruments.


Earlier:
quote:

millions of dollars at auction and the whole guitar market will turn inside out.


So which is it?

Kirk Hammett and the “greenie” Gibson story I find comical…people inflating the value of a basic real piece of junk instrument. No, it doesn’t affect the market at all.

And in regard to “creating wealth out of thin air”, I am sorry but I don’t see the difference between super rich people doing it and used car dealers, or even me, selling my guitar playing to people…something I am perfectly happy doing at home for free. I do not envy the rich at all, nor do I blame them for being so, etc. The divide is relative to our times, no different than all of history. Genetic bottle necks prove it has always been a thing for 10s of thousands of years, ever since the first magic concept of “money value” was invented. Suddenly there needed to be categories for how much food costs. Nothing is changing.



estebanana -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 8 2023 23:05:49)

Ricardo, did you read the complete piece in the NYer? Because that’s what I’m referring to, not Metallica.



RobF -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 9 2023 3:22:12)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ricardo

And in regard to “creating wealth out of thin air”, I am sorry but I don’t see the difference between super rich people doing it and used car dealers, or even me, selling my guitar playing to people…something I am perfectly happy doing at home for free. I do not envy the rich at all, nor do I blame them for being so, etc. The divide is relative to our times, no different than all of history. Genetic bottle necks prove it has always been a thing for 10s of thousands of years, ever since the first magic concept of “money value” was invented. Suddenly there needed to be categories for how much food costs. Nothing is changing.


I think the crypto thing could be an example. In reality that’s more like a Ponzi scheme of sorts rather than actually creating wealth out of thin air, but there was a flurry of activity in collector markets during the pandemic that was fuelled by people moving crypto gains into tangible objects. Cashing out, really. People who were trading in the objects got very wealthy, some grey market wristwatch dealers being examples. Stock market bubbles can have the same effect, too, that might be a better example, actually. Maybe the expression itself is flawed, but it wasn’t intended to mean regular earnings, etc…



Piwin -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 9 2023 4:41:34)

quote:

He described the experience of playing the guitar as akin to driving a supercharged Bentley.


Mine is like driving a 30-y.o. SEAT: Siempre Estarás Arreglando Tonterías. [8D]



Ricardo -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 11 2023 13:59:40)

quote:

ORIGINAL: RobF

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ricardo

And in regard to “creating wealth out of thin air”, I am sorry but I don’t see the difference between super rich people doing it and used car dealers, or even me, selling my guitar playing to people…something I am perfectly happy doing at home for free. I do not envy the rich at all, nor do I blame them for being so, etc. The divide is relative to our times, no different than all of history. Genetic bottle necks prove it has always been a thing for 10s of thousands of years, ever since the first magic concept of “money value” was invented. Suddenly there needed to be categories for how much food costs. Nothing is changing.


I think the crypto thing could be an example. In reality that’s more like a Ponzi scheme of sorts rather than actually creating wealth out of thin air, but there was a flurry of activity in collector markets during the pandemic that was fuelled by people moving crypto gains into tangible objects. Cashing out, really. People who were trading in the objects got very wealthy, some grey market wristwatch dealers being examples. Stock market bubbles can have the same effect, too, that might be a better example, actually. Maybe the expression itself is flawed, but it wasn’t intended to mean regular earnings, etc…


Right. Well, I have a close friend who has some cash to burn. He lost about a million dollars on a crypto scam, but still Fs around with it. We sit back and laugh about it. But truth is, it is a problem for “them” not for us. Estebanan keeps asking if I read the article…I did, but I second guess myself and look again but it is as I expected. Rich people living in misery. I feel bad for them., but no it will not ever “turn the guitar market upside down”. Perhaps others read an article like that in envy, anger, fear about the future etc. Not me. I have already noticed women with babies boarding a plane in group 9 with me, while “rich” people board first and have a little divider to separate themselves from the rest of us on the plane. It is to hide their shame for paying exhorbitantly more for their stuff than they needed to. RIPPED OFF they were. even the flight attendant insisted on putting MY GUITAR in their overhead bag space area. Hilarious to me. What good is wealth like that when it is only about others having a piece of you?



Richard Jernigan -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 12 2023 0:46:52)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ricardo
I have already noticed women with babies boarding a plane in group 9 with me, while “rich” people board first and have a little divider to separate themselves from the rest of us on the plane. It is to hide their shame for paying exhorbitantly more for their stuff than they needed to. RIPPED OFF they were. even the flight attendant insisted on putting MY GUITAR in their overhead bag space area. Hilarious to me. What good is wealth like that when it is only about others having a piece of you?


I only fly a few times a year since I retired, but there was a time when I was a frequent flyer. I have a couple million miles on one of my frequent flyer cards, so I was often upgraded to first class. There were a few times when I ascertained that the majority of people in the first class section of a 737 were upgrades, by asking a flight attendant. Most of the time I just minded my own business.

On every airline I have ever traveled on for the last 70 years, women with babies have boarded before first class, if they got to the gate in time.

RNJ



estebanana -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 12 2023 2:59:08)

I didn’t read the article and get angry or anything, just as Elvis Costello said:

I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused



Echi -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 12 2023 10:47:58)

I don’t think this is a profitable market. Not anymore and not for luthiers.
High range guitars and collector items are profitable just for certain people and that’s why dealers keep hyping this or that guitar: eventually this is just a different game with very few luthiers and real players involved.

Music, art, good artisans, belong to a different world already.
I wouldn’t buy a Santos even if I liked it but to resell it and I could add many names to the list.
This is also what many famous players do.



estebanana -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 12 2023 16:08:43)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Echi

I don’t think this is a profitable market. Not anymore and not for luthiers.
High range guitars and collector items are profitable just for certain people and that’s why dealers keep hyping this or that guitar: eventually this is just a different game with very few luthiers and real players involved.

Music, art, good artisans, belong to a different world already.
I wouldn’t buy a Santos even if I liked it but to resell it and I could add many names to the list.
This is also what many famous players do.



This is all true. But there’s a potential for a market to bloom that’s not got anything to do with our sad little low life commiserations over meager commissions lists. There’s the potential for a separate market to go wildly for a while. It’s not going to change our stinky horse trading system, it’s going to and to some extent already does exist for people of great wealth.



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