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RE: The Trump Nightmare is Over!
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mark indigo
Posts: 3625
Joined: Dec. 5 2007
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 RE: The Trump Nightmare is Over! (in reply to BarkellWH)
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quote:
And yet, Margaret Thatcher won three elections in a row (1979, 1983, and 1987) and held the position of Prime Minister from 1979 to 1990, a total of 11 years. She was a polarizing figure, but her electoral history demonstrates there were plenty of voters who agreed with her policies and programs.
I stand by what I have written. I have discussed Thatcher with many Brits over the years, especially during her years in office, and a majority of them supported Thatcher's policies, although a significant minority did not like her. Without having conducted a formal study, I would say that the Brits I talked to mirrored the electorate in the UK regarding their views on Thatcher.
It's noteworthy that the "significant minority" that you report that didn't like her were a significant minority only of the people you discussed politics with....
Regarding the election results, yes her party won those elections. She got more votes than the Labour party, especially in the 1983 election. But it wasn't a two horse race, there were three main parties, and more people voted for the other two parties in all three of those elections than voted for Thatcher's Conservatives (in the '83 the Conservatives got 42%, Labour only 27%, but the Liberals 25%). So there were a lot of people who were not for her, more than half of the people that voted (turnout was 72-76%).
I was trying to fill in that side of the picture.
The (post) industrial North, south Wales and parts of Scotland continued to vote Labour, and towns in those areas were controlled by Labour councils until the recent (and, of course, ongoing) Brexit debacle finally broke the "Red Wall" and those areas voted for pro-Leave Conservatives in their droves in the last election.
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Date Nov. 12 2020 20:48:51
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Brendan
Posts: 353
Joined: Oct. 30 2010
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RE: The Trump Nightmare is Over! (in reply to BarkellWH)
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quote:
And yet, Margaret Thatcher won three elections in a row (1979, 1983, and 1987) and held the position of Prime Minister from 1979 to 1990, a total of 11 years. She was a polarizing figure, but her electoral history demonstrates there were plenty of voters who agreed with her policies and programs.
I stand by what I have written. I have discussed Thatcher with many Brits over the years, especially during her years in office, and a majority of them supported Thatcher's policies, although a significant minority did not like her. Without having conducted a formal study, I would say that the Brits I talked to mirrored the electorate in the UK regarding their views on Thatcher.
Bill, thanks for conceding the point about the size of the public sector in the UK economy in the post-war years. That was gracious. But you’re still explaining when you might do better to enquire. I know what they used to call Arthur Scargill. I was there. I remember. I also know that there is a much bigger story about industrial relations in the UK than the political leanings and holiday choices of one union leader, however prominent. Something to do with the post-war cross-party Keynesian consensus requiring a prices-and-incomes policy that boiled down to governments trying to control inflation by asking the population to take smaller pay rises. In a country where relations between labour and capital are institutionalised as they were in the UK, this couldn’t last. It wasn’t all about King Arthur.
What really strikes me is the contrast between the erudite and fascinating discussions among Americans on here about the USA’s electoral practices (having read the posts, I hesitate to say ‘system’), and the naivety of this riposte about Thatcher. Mark has already explained that she never won anything like a majority of the popular vote (British prime ministers never do—they don’t have to) and pointed out the selection effect of checking with your British friends. If a majority of your British friends thought she was a good thing, that is proof that they’re not a representative sample. Let me add that her electoral victories do not show that 40% of the population supported her policies. They may only show that 40% thought she was less bad than the alternatives (and here, you may write your own paragraph about the state of the Labour Party at the time).
My point, Bill, is this: you’re an an intelligent person, and when you write about American politics, you don’t commit these elementary errors. You know that voting is a selection among alternatives and people may vote for Jones just because they want to keep Smith out, and that electoral systems don’t just mirror the popular will (because they have things like the electoral college built in). That’s because when you write about the USA, you know what you’re talking about.
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Date Nov. 14 2020 11:48:37
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Richard Jernigan
Posts: 3430
Joined: Jan. 20 2004
From: Austin, Texas USA
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RE: The Trump Nightmare is Over! (in reply to mark indigo)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: mark indigo
In the run up to the US election I saw people being interviewed saying they were voting for Trump because he was "good for the economy", which begs the question "at what price a booming economy?" especially where the benefits of that booming economy don't benefit everyone equally.
Television became generally available in the USA when I was 12 or 13 years old. Before that there were radio soap operas, crime dramas etc.
One of the radio characters was The Shadow. He could become invisible when the plot closed in too tightly upon him. Not physically invisible. The narrator made this clear at the beginning of every show: "He has the power to cloud men's minds."
Trump has this power in real life.
Since his appearance upon the political scene Larisa and I have marveled at the utter blindness of about 40% of the population. To us Trump's character flaws are flagrant and harshly repellent. We were right in expecting his constant stream of enormities. To his followers his flaws are invisible or written off as benign quirks. To them he is their hero setting about to right the wrongs of the world, beset by the forces of evil.
We concluded years ago that it was a divergence of perceptions which determined our response and that of Trump's followers, not reasoned conclusions. Of course we and they have come up with a lot of arguments in favor of our foregone reactions.
I have just begun to read "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman the Nobel Economics Laureate. It's been on the shelf for some time. I was prompted to take the book down to read it by the first episode of a Public TV series featuring Kahneman, titled something along the line of "Hacking your Mind."
In his book the Kahneman distinguishes two modes of thought. System 1 operates swiftly and inevitably. It produces perceptions, as well as conclusions that require rapid, nearly autonomous reaction. System 2 is slower, laborious, and capable of self monitoring, logic and judgment. An important role for System 2 is inhibition of erroneous results from system 1.
Kahneman illustrates by pointing out that "every human has experienced the decision not to tell somebody to go to hell."
He illustrates System 1 errors via optical illusions. He points out that once an illusion is verified as such, System 1's mistake is promptly questioned and somewhat inhibited by System 2. Then he proceeds to discuss System 1 "errors of cognition." One of his teachers warned of the deceptive charm of psycopaths, and how to recognize it.
So far Kahneman has not discussed the Trump phenomenon. I will be surprised if he does. He makes it clear that he wants to impart his findings to the widest audience.
Personally, I find that Trump deceives his supporters with a degree of skill, and they are fatally susceptible.
To many of us whose experience and inclinations differ from those of Trump's supporters, revulsion is our instant perception via System 1. Analysis by System 2 serves to confirm our reactions.
Hahneman is worth paying attention to. His Nobel prize work is based in the psychology he popularizes in his book. The discipline of behavioral economics, taking into account perceptual biases, is a revolution against the doctrine of the "rational actor."
"Big tech" exploits Hahneman's insights to influence us and make money off of our inherent perceptual errors.
RNJ
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Date Nov. 15 2020 4:51:24
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ernandez R
Posts: 737
Joined: Mar. 25 2019
From: Alaska USA
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RE: The Trump Nightmare is Over! (in reply to mark indigo)
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Ritchard,
I don’t think Trump has any power at all. I think we, or rather the segment of Americans who voted for him are his power, he is a mirror of them, inside him coalesces all of their fears hates and desires: Trump is all Americans.
Well that was simple.
Ok but not really, Trump was placed in power and stayed in power by those with real power. I don’t have a crystal ball and I don’t reside in power so I can’t point with any more a an accuracy then if I was to shape this tinfoil hat into a pointer and give this wheel of fortune a spin.
There is no doubt power is done with him, he is less then yurtle the turtle, and power has drained his pond.
Ah but what of Americana, that every man and the +8 of white women who voted for him, **** it was +6 four years ago, oh no I might be slipping into another rant...
Will they take their hate and fear and let it slip back under cover, say until the next demagogue comes a calling only pray he, or she, is just as incompetent as the current occupant.
And what of Power? It turns away and pins on a blue D lapel pin, then spins back around glad handing donors with that slick back smile greasing the wings and wheels of our MIC, a panacea for our health care and pill providers, lipmen and wenchalls all, and look at all the new jobs!
So go ahead and read Danial’s book, I know what it’s going to say, and he predicted I would say exactly that, that we are trapped in a locus of statistical probability, some will have all the luck, some none, what he couldn’t predict was wether it was a bell curve, inverted V, it more likely some perverse ratio that feeds some sliver of one percent while the rest of the world makes do picking through a garbage heap for its daily substance. And let’s not forget that Daniel forgot to factor in history, I havnt read the book but I know he predicted I would say he predicted that I would bring up this missing point.
History says two simple things: that our nation will end along with it’s prosperity and our species will end, both just as sure as it has predicated your’s and mine.
I’ve understood statistical probability for most of my life, might have picked up the idea reading sci fi as a teenager, anyway I see how it works, that we can lead this charmed life, sure a few bumps along the way, but here I am feet up, had my dinner and belly full, warm and a glass of wine, sure I’ve been better, I’ve had hella more in my bank accounts and stuffed under my pillow, I’ve worked hard and passed along, but what did I really do to get it this good, this easy, compared to the rest of the world. I have four guitars within reach of my reclined position, my partner would pour me another glass of wine if I asked her, what random act put me in her way but for some nasty Alaskan weather, ...
So with all that what can we say we have done, what great accomplishment? I voted, does that feed the starving of the world? I call myself compassionate but does that make me better then my brother?
I have only one success in my life. I raised my child to be a better person then myself and to make better choices for her future. When it all seems at its most pointless I do recall this and feel it is all we can really do, we all have hates and prejudices, darkness and greed to one extent or another, we’ve done that which we regretted and taken advantage of, but if we can give the world and her future one small token it will be a child grown better then ourselves.
HR
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should have some meat on the bones,
can be raw or well done,
as long as it doesn't sound like it's turning green on an elevator floor.
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Date Nov. 15 2020 6:35:49
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BarkellWH
Posts: 3458
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC
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RE: The Trump Nightmare is Over! (in reply to kitarist)
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quote:
As a Bulgarian-Canadian who participated in those, I can't decide if I should take this as a compliment (having enough US knowledge to be mistaken for a 'native') or an insult ('erudite' did not apply to my contributions)
Konstantin, no one would ever accuse you of lacking in knowledge or erudition.
By the way, I hope I didn't offend you in describing the Bulgaria visited by Arthur (Red Arthur) Scargill, head of the British miner's union, as I seem to have (unintentionally) offended a couple of members with my observations on Margaret Thatcher.
Bill
_____________________________
And the end of the fight is a tombstone white,
With the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here,
Who tried to hustle the East."
--Rudyard Kipling
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Date Nov. 15 2020 19:11:41
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Richard Jernigan
Posts: 3430
Joined: Jan. 20 2004
From: Austin, Texas USA
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RE: The Trump Nightmare is Over! (in reply to ernandez R)
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Scott Adams, the Dilbert cartoonist, wrote a book called “Win Bigly.” In it he purports to explain Trump’s success by portraying him as a marketing genius, like a successful advertising agent. Adams imagines Trump craftily devising his promise to build a border wall. Adams says it is a stroke of genius. The Wall is a symbol which can be pictured however the voter likes, but it is a symbol of American strength and a simple solution to a complex problem. Adams goes on for pages about Trump’s mastery of the art of marketing, pausing only to assure us several times that he, Adams, knows what he is talking about because he is a Trained Hypnotist.
Several weeks after I laid Adams’s book down for the last time, having given up maybe a fifth of the way through, I ran across an account by two former Trump campaign employees, telling how the wall business came about. Early in the campaign, preparing Trump for his rally performances they would remind him, “Say something about the wall,” hoping it might remind him to riff on immigration for a while. Promising to build a wall proved to be an applause line. Trump, desperately eager for approval, elaborated the wall shtick more and more, soon adding the absurd and patently false promise that Mexico would pay for it. The rally crowds ate it up.
The campaign staffers’ account ended there. However it was clear to the casual observer that Trump had snookered himself into a difficult position. Border security experts, though Trump supporters, pointed out that the wall would be prodigiously expensive, siphoning funds from defense in depth, the only workable strategy. Congressional Republicans refused to fund Trump’s fantasy. After 2018 Congressional Democrats twisted the knife, goading Trump into the longest government shutdown, from which he was forced to surrender without Congress ceding a cent to his demands.
Still the crowds chanted, “Build the Wall!!”
In the latest episode of wall slapstick Steve Bannon, Trump’s erstwhile Rasputin, has been indicted for bilking contributors to a scam pretending to raise funds for the wall.
The crowds still chanted, “Build the Wall!!”
At present my Trump supporting friends seem utterly consumed by outrage over the “rigged” election, but I’m sure that whatever form Trumpism may take in future, the Wall will cast a long shadow in it.
Trump’s son-in-law told Bob Woodward that one key to understanding the Mountebank-in-Chief would be to re-read “Alice in Wonderland.” In Kushner’s estimation Trump is no strategist. His genius lies in the ability to thrash about and survive the daily crises.
And I think Trump’s ability to cloud men’s minds lies in his ability to notice common threads of self deception in the public, which he may or may not share, to shamelessly amplify them, and through trial and error to tangle them into mass delusion.
RNJ
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Date Nov. 15 2020 20:09:29
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BarkellWH
Posts: 3458
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC
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RE: The Trump Nightmare is Over! (in reply to mark indigo)
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quote:
If you are referring to me in the above quote I assure you I have not been remotely offended. I think I said I was "taken aback" which I was, as I thought the picture you painted was decidedly rosy, and not the bitterly divided country I remember growing up in. So not offended, just trying to give a more balanced picture (and correct the idea that the whole country was supportive of Thatcher).
Mark, glad you were not offended. I enjoy your (and Brendan's) comments on any number of topics, and the last thing I would want is to put you off. Just to clarify, I didn't mean to suggest the entire UK was supportive of Thatcher, but I think plenty of people did support her, and frankly, as I mentioned, I did too, as an observing Yank. Nevertheless, I do remember the UK as being bitterly divided at the time.
Regarding Scargill, I heard the moniker "Red" Arthur from my friends in the British Embassy, and I remember seeing it in articles in the International Herald Tribune. It was probably something the Tories called him in their less guarded moments.
Bill
_____________________________
And the end of the fight is a tombstone white,
With the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here,
Who tried to hustle the East."
--Rudyard Kipling
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Date Nov. 16 2020 3:37:33
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BarkellWH
Posts: 3458
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC
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RE: The Trump Nightmare is Over! (in reply to Richard Jernigan)
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quote:
Personally, I have often had trouble concluding at any particular moment whether Trump is lying or just wrong and bullheaded about it...in other words, completely divorced from reality. I have the feeling it's some of both. I am just really uncertain about the proportion.
Trump lies, he is wrong (and bullheaded), and absolutely ignorant. Let’s consider Trump.
Early on his constant refrain that Obama was not really an American citizen, and that he had a “fake” birth certificate was ludicrous. Obama was born in Hawaii, and Trump and all of his right-wing nut followers who parroted that line just demonstrated how ignorant they were, or they didn’t know Hawaii was a part of the US, which, again, demonstrated how ignorant they were.
Trump’s lies and backtracking all over the place on the Covid-19 pandemic have had real-world consequences for the US. Remember him denying that it was a problem? It would soon disappear. And Trump defies every scientific and medical protocol—doesn’t wear a mask, has rallies where his ignorant supporters don’t wear masks, and condemns his own Covid-19 Task Force when they advocate proper procedures and protocols.
Trump has no respect for the US military or its members. Trump was disgusting in his condemnation of John McCain. McCain, a man who was shot down in Vietnam and endured over five years as a POW and was tortured, and Trump said he “didn’t like military members who were captured.” That was as disgusting a comment as I’ve ever heard. At a meeting in the Pentagon’s “tank” (the secure room, which I have been in when I was a State-Defense Exchange Officer in 1998) Trump called the Joint Chiefs of Staff “babies” and “losers.” This, from a man who did everything he could to get out of serving in the military himself.
Trump undercut the Foreign Service officers who were doing their job in Ukraine when he made the infamous phone call to the President of Ukraine stating he would release funds to Ukraine if the President would ensure an investigation into Biden and his son. The Ambassador and others who testified were belittled by Trump. He can’t stand someone who has actually accomplished something, as opposed to himself who has done nothing constructive other than declare bankruptcy on about five occasions.
And, of course, Trump has demonstrated he trusts Russia’s Putin more than he does our own intelligence services, and that he cannot handle summits with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un because he fails to allow for adequate preparation. Thus, they always end up with nothing to show for them. But that’s Trump.
And Trump has trashed our allies in NATO, and he doesn’t believe in free trade. He believes in tariffs, and laughably thinks China pays the tariff when, in fact, it is the US importer who pays the tariff as an import duty. That he pulled the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the group of 12 countries that were to form a free-trade bloc as a counterweight to China, was close to criminal. We are ceding Asia to China. Trump is just that ignorant.
I could go on because there is so much that Trump has done to diminish America’s role in the world. But I think that’s enough to get the point across.
And just as bad as Trump is Vice President Mike Pence, the most obsequious, sycophantic toady to grace that office ever. When he is behind the podium singing the praises of Trump, Pence looks like something out of Madam Tussaud's Wax Museum.
Nevertheless, what is stunning and beyond rational comprehension is that in the recent election, although Biden won, more than 70 million Americans voted for Trump. That figure does not instill confidence in a large swath of the American public's view of the national interest.
Bill
_____________________________
And the end of the fight is a tombstone white,
With the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here,
Who tried to hustle the East."
--Rudyard Kipling
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Date Nov. 16 2020 4:18:17
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Richard Jernigan
Posts: 3430
Joined: Jan. 20 2004
From: Austin, Texas USA
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RE: The Trump Nightmare is Over! (in reply to BarkellWH)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: BarkellWH
He believes in tariffs, and laughably thinks China pays the tariff when, in fact, it is the US importer who pays the tariff as an import duty.
That's one of the many things that puzzle me. I think, surely he knows better, he's just lying. But then he says, "We've got a lot of money coming in from China. Billions and billions." A reporter asks where all this money is coming from. "From the tariffs," says Trump, "billions and billions a lot of money from the tariffs I put on them we're going to take some of that and give it to the farmers." My head spins.
quote:
Nevertheless, what is stunning and beyond rational comprehension is that in the recent election, although Biden won, more than 70 million Americans voted for Trump. That figure does not instill confidence in a large swath of the American public's view of the national interest.
Bill
Judging from my Trump supporting friends, a large swath of the Americans public have no view at all of the national interest, because they have no concept of it whatsoever.
RNJ
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Date Nov. 16 2020 5:49:29
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Richard Jernigan
Posts: 3430
Joined: Jan. 20 2004
From: Austin, Texas USA
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RE: The Trump Nightmare is Over! (in reply to Escribano)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Escribano
quote:
I frankly find it shocking that otherwise intelligent adults can’t see that their (Fox idiots) behavior is the direct result of pushing back hard against the OTHER side’s behavior
From here, one side is fairly reasonable, the other is as mad as a bag of spanners. you make your choice. 
To me, both the "mainstream media" and the Fox "entertainers" are strongly biased, in opposite directions. The NY Times and the Washington Post both interpret every event in a way that puts Trump and his Republican minions in the worst possible light, WaPo more than NYT. The cable news channels are even more eager to be sure Trump looks as bad as possible--which is pretty damned bad.
A major distinction is that the events which the mainstream interpret have almost always actually occurred, while the Fox wingnuts do not hesitate to make stuff up--and to credit other people who also lie.
There is a further effect on social media. If you were to judge just from their social media feeds, you would conclude that two of my friends think only in cartoons. I have known them for years, and I know that this is not really the case. But memes are all you see from them. Whoever the obscure agents may be who put together the memes, they do not hesitate to lie, insult, inflame, even incite to violence. My friends regularly post this arrant bullsh1t. I assume it reflects their emotions.
I also have an idea where some of their emotions may have originated, as I have said before.
However I agree that one side has not just a lunatic fringe, but in fact a lunatic core.
RNJ
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Date Nov. 17 2020 1:02:49
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