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What big changes may result from this pandemic?   You are logged in as Guest
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flyeogh

Posts: 729
Joined: Oct. 13 2004
 

What big changes may result from thi... 

I was thinking what major changes might/may happen as a result of this pandemic. I came up with three:

1. The EU will break up, or certainly be unrecognisable from its current form. Italy may follow the UK out as a first step.
2. Scottish Independence will be a non-topic for at least a decade if not forever. (thinking their share of the shortly to be massive UK debt, and the collapse of oil).
3. The climate change movement will be put back 10 years (thinking that people seeing fish in the canals of Venice and satellite fotos of disappearing contamination, illustrates that if the world takes a 2 month holiday then all returns to normal).

Obviously a bit this side of the pond centric as I’m a brit.

Can anyone add any others?

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nigel (el raton de Watford - now Puerto de Santa Maria, Cadiz)
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 8:10:31
 
tele

Posts: 1452
Joined: Aug. 17 2012
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to flyeogh

If the world recovered from Spanish flu of 1918 relatively well I think things are going to be ok this time without more bigger issues than economic crisis.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 15:21:51
 
Neil

 

Posts: 62
Joined: Oct. 29 2018
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to flyeogh

I think the chances of the EU breaking up after this are virtually non-existent. All the EU countries are going to take a massive economic hit from this - the last thing they will want is to cut themselves further adrift. The ECB have already announced a 750 billion euro program to buy corporate and public bonds across the Union for the next 12 months including from Greece for the first time since the global crash. And there is already talk of triggering the European Stability Mechanism which would see them share a collective debt to ease the effects of the crisis. The thought that any country would then tear itself away from the world's biggest trading bloc and inflict itself to more economic turbulence after this is insane - or just wishful thinking from Brexiteers.

As someone who is from a Scottish family, I am pretty certain the independence topic is not going to go away anytime soon!

I don’t think the climate debate will go away either. The fact that nature changes so dramatically in our absence is a lesson in how intrusive we are. I think we may even see less air travel in the wake of this, especially as many airlines may have to restructure. Plus, the scientific consensus behind climate change isn’t suddenly going to go away.
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 16:36:22
 
Ricardo

Posts: 12996
Joined: Dec. 14 2004
From: Washington DC

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to flyeogh

The world has been heading towards a more inward direction, meaning stores already closing and everything shopping wise done online, zombie people on their phones all day. For many of those home schooling and working from home with Uber eats and grocery delivery, this whole thing is no big deal at all. This event is forcing all humanity to move that direction.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 17:42:38
 
kitarist

Posts: 1291
Joined: Dec. 4 2012
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to Ricardo

I was thinking the other day that there has already been a trend for restaurants (any sit-in places that offer food) to be slowly turning into take-out kitchens (or get out of the business). This might hasten that a little bit. I am not saying all restaurants will soon become that under normal circumstances; it just seems to me that a much larger proportion, possibly a majority, in 20-25 years will just be glorified community kitchens - and possibly just as, or more, profitable, than their sit-in version.

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Konstantin
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 17:53:53
 
Neil

 

Posts: 62
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RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to Ricardo

quote:

For many of those home schooling and working from home with Uber eats and grocery delivery, this whole thing is no big deal at all.


Yes, I think the biggest change will be more businesses employing remote workers so that there is minimal impact in this kind of scenario. As you say, we are already heading in that direction in many ways. I already do half my work from home as do many people I know.
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 18:04:41
 
flyeogh

Posts: 729
Joined: Oct. 13 2004
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to flyeogh

Well interesting stuff. Quite thought provoking.

I've now added to my initial three a change of regime in Iran.

I agree that the breaking up of the EU, especially for countries tied to the Euro, will be difficult. But I do think the EU will be badly damaged and very much weaker.

Not sure any comparisons can be drawn from the 1918 event. The Great War rather blanketed the event for many. But there are historians who believe that the pandemic influenced the result of the war.

But time will tell.

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nigel (el raton de Watford - now Puerto de Santa Maria, Cadiz)
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 22 2020 8:25:37
 
Brendan

Posts: 244
Joined: Oct. 30 2010
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to flyeogh

1. The same stupid English exceptionalism that led to brexit is there again in the UK govt response to COVID-19, brought to us by the same people. So like Nigel, I’ve been indulging in wishful thinking, hoping that the Trump-Brexit axis of idiocy will finally get its electoral comeuppance. But support for UKgovt’s handling of the crisis is at.... 52%! There’s no reason to think that the EU will break up (Nigel doesn’t give one). But the deeper trends that brought us populism haven’t gone away. Small towns and villages are still screwed because knowledge-based economies concentrate in cities. The people who live in small settlements will go on thinking that it’s someone’s fault that their town is dying.

2. Again, the deeper drivers have not gone away. When the crisis is past, they’ll re-assert themselves.

3. And again.


What may change is education. All over the world, online learning is becoming normal. Once schools and colleges have got it going for their own students, they’ll start looking at each other’s. There will be a market shake-out and a handful of institutions will emerge as providers of online higher education. This was much talked of ten years ago but never happened because the status quo wasn’t broken. It is now.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 22 2020 9:42:55
 
Piwin

Posts: 3298
Joined: Feb. 9 2016
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to flyeogh

I find it impossible to say because at this point I still have no idea what strategy our leaders are implementing. What I think is true is that the crisis has made the flaws of our systems quite apparent, pretty much impossible to ignore. Whether that leads to any change, I don't know.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 22 2020 13:06:07
 
flyeogh

Posts: 729
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RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to Brendan

quote:

The same stupid English exceptionalism
Brendan are you Scottish by chance?

Just so the record is straight I did not vote for brexit.

quote:

There’s no reason to think that the EU will break up (Nigel doesn’t give one).


1. The debts of Italian and Spanish banks are still yet to be seen. After this event they may well be. What evidence of these debts do I have you might ask? Well have a look at Spanish bank property portfolios. Have a look at the bank's property selling prices. Then make an offer well below evaluation and see what happens. (I sold a property recently in Asturias. I was grateful for half the purchase price of 10 years earlier. The spanish banks seem to have missed this market change).

2. My Italian friends living near Milan want to know why the EU fining Italy this month, then closing borders and blocking the import of medical supplies should make them feel grateful to the EU.

3. My step-daughters father (a successful spanish business man living in Madrid) has just written to the EU asking why he has seen support in Madrid from Russia, China and Cuba, yet nothing from the EU.

I could talk about Hungary but I think that answers your doubt about having what I see are good reasons. I fully accept you may have counter arguments and promise to remain polite if I reply to them.

I know remainers, or whatever they are now calling themselves, think everything is Brexit but it is not.

At the end of this virus I believe there will be previously unseen unemployment in Spain and other poorer EU countries, Yes Spain is used to poverty and high unemployment but they have seen the French take action and I wouldn't be surprised if at long last the Toro was fired into action.

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nigel (el raton de Watford - now Puerto de Santa Maria, Cadiz)
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 22 2020 14:19:13
 
flyeogh

Posts: 729
Joined: Oct. 13 2004
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to Piwin

quote:

I find it impossible to say because at this point I still have no idea what strategy our leaders are implementing. What I think is true is that the crisis has made the flaws of our systems quite apparent, pretty much impossible to ignore. Whether that leads to any change, I don't know.


Piwin it was meant to be an attempt to explore possibilities. Thus the bold might/may. I've always found how reactions to what might even have been seen as small changes to events in history could have led to major changes, very interesting.

As an historic war gamer in the past I often, with friends, ran the second world war with Spain entering as Hitler desired. Of course Spain could offer little in terms of resources but would have given direct access to Gib. And would Rommel have loved that. All for fun of course.

Anyway hope all goes well and I live to see if my predictions come true. I'd take two out of four

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nigel (el raton de Watford - now Puerto de Santa Maria, Cadiz)
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 22 2020 14:38:18
 
Piwin

Posts: 3298
Joined: Feb. 9 2016
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to flyeogh

Yeah I understand that. I'm just saying I don't know how to do that (explore future possibilities) when I don't even know what is happening right now, in this present moment. I wouldn't know where to begin.

All I'll say is this: if holding your breath for 30 seconds means that you'll die, then you have a sh1tty respiratory system. Likewise, if shutting down your economy for a mere 30 days means that it will collapse or that a substantial amount of people will no longer be able to provide for themselves, then you had a sh1tty economic system to begin with. I think people will notice that and it will be a substantial addition to the already rapidly growing discontent vis-à-vis modern-day capitalism.

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"Anything you do can be fixed. What you cannot fix is the perfection of a blank page. What you cannot fix is that pristine, unsullied whiteness of a screen or a page with nothing on it—because there’s nothing there to fix."
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 22 2020 15:50:38
 
Escribano

Posts: 6254
Joined: Jul. 6 2003
From: England, living in Italy

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to flyeogh

Remote working will become more of a norm, especially telemedicine in which I am working at the moment.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 22 2020 15:50:59
 
BarkellWH

Posts: 3245
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to flyeogh

I hesitate to speculate on what big changes may result from this pandemic, primarily because of the "Black Swan Theory." You may recall the book entitled "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," by Nassim Nicholas Taleb published in 2007, in which he posited that just because we see white swans all our lives does not mean there are no black swans in existence, and when a black swan appears it can upend our lives.

It seems to me that this pandemic is an example of a "Black Swan" event. It's not that we could not imagine a pandemic, but I doubt if anyone imagined we would face a worldwide pandemic such as the Coronavirus as we are doing now. Not knowing how this will play itself out, both in terms of human health, sickness, and death; as well as in economic devastation in much of the world, it may end with a few more "Black Swans" that we cannot even imagine right now.

Bill

_____________________________

And the end of the fight is a tombstone white,
With the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here,
Who tried to hustle the East."

--Rudyard Kipling
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 22 2020 18:21:01
 
devilhand

 

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RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to flyeogh

More interesting question for us is:
What big changes in flamenco may result from this pandemic?

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 22 2020 23:12:38
 
Brendan

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RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to flyeogh

1. Why would weak banks cause the EU to break up now when it didn’t in 2008? I don’t see the mechanism here. Weak banks are something the European institutions already know how to deal with.

2. Right but that’s a reason to vote for different MEPS and to kick up a fuss in the council of minsters. It’s not a reason to visit on Italy the political and economic damage that brexit has done to the UK. It’s not a reason to tear up half a century of integration and make Italy’s trading relations more difficult than they need to be just at a time when no one can afford such pointless disruption.

3. I’m sure he’ll understand when they explain that the EU is not a nation state. It does not have a health service from which it can divert staff and equipment to Spain. It does not have the concentrated executive powers to react to a crisis the way a nation state can. It was designed that way, so that nothing gets done unless everyone agrees, which takes time.

Individuals and institutions will be judged on how they deal with this crisis. But all the polling numbers suggest that leaving the EU is not a popular idea in any EU27 country. Why would anyone want to follow Britain’s example?

All of this argument depends on people acting rationally—but brexit happened and Boris Johnson has good polling numbers even now. So that’s maybe not a sound premise. Perhaps the economic fallout from this crisis will lead to another populist spasm. But will it be directed against the EU? Because this pandemic is a crisis, it falls to national governments to deal with it. If they are judged to have botched it, it will be they rather than the EU that get the blame.

I’m not Scottish. My visits to Scotland are in single figures and I have no personal connection with Scotland. I’d be sorry to see Scottish independence just because I’d rather not see another wall go up.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 22 2020 23:54:58
 
El Burdo

 

Posts: 596
Joined: Sep. 8 2011
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to BarkellWH

quote:

I doubt if anyone imagined we would face a worldwide pandemic such as the Coronavirus as we are doing now


Really? I think if the wargamers of the world haven't considered that the world may face a pandemic they ought to give up in shame. If they can wargame VX in the water supply, or the anticipated Tokyo Bay earthquake then they should have imagined something like this. I suspect they have.

The reality of it is, Governments want to remain in power post-apocalypse and are avoiding recognising the realities of their socioeconomic model playing out. Actions such as support for a national wage are being dragged out of them by pubic pressure. Johnson's earlier plan was to allow the old and the poor and the homeless to be culled at Nature's unconcerned hand, rather than see the FTSE plunge.

From what you have said already I know you will feel the same about Trump's (a one man pandemic) attempt to buy for exclusive US use, German anti-virus technology. It is to Germany's credit they refused.

+1 for Hilary Mantel.

Edit:
quote:

I doubt if anyone imagined we would face a worldwide pandemic such as the Coronavirus as we are doing now
Maybe you mean no-one could have imagined that the way we are dealing with it is as it is? Imagined a more constructive approach? Like Bolton not doing away with the pandemic preparedness office?
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 23 2020 16:50:29
 
Piwin

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Joined: Feb. 9 2016
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to El Burdo

quote:

by pubic pressure


That's not a comfortable position to be in

(agree with you on the rest. I just couldn't resist the joke )

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"Anything you do can be fixed. What you cannot fix is the perfection of a blank page. What you cannot fix is that pristine, unsullied whiteness of a screen or a page with nothing on it—because there’s nothing there to fix."
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 23 2020 17:10:06
 
BarkellWH

Posts: 3245
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to El Burdo

quote:

Really? I think if the wargamers of the world haven't considered that the world may face a pandemic they ought to give up in shame. If they can wargame VX in the water supply, or the anticipated Tokyo Bay earthquake then they should have imagined something like this. I suspect they have.

The reality of it is, Governments want to remain in power post-apocalypse and are avoiding recognising the realities of their socioeconomic model playing out. Actions such as support for a national wage are being dragged out of them by pubic pressure. Johnson's earlier plan was to allow the old and the poor and the homeless to be culled at Nature's unconcerned hand, rather than see the FTSE plunge.

From what you have said already I know you will feel the same about Trump's (a one man pandemic) attempt to buy for exclusive US use, German anti-virus technology. It is to Germany's credit they refused.


I have probably participated in more war games than you can imagine in my career in the US Foreign Service and as a consultant to US Defense Department contractors. As I stated in my comment above, "It seems to me that this pandemic is an example of a "Black Swan" event. It's not that we could not imagine a pandemic, but I doubt if anyone imagined we would face a worldwide pandemic such as the Coronavirus as we are doing now."

There all kinds of scenarios of disasters that are "war gamed," but it is still a bit of a shock when something this bad and wide-spread occurs. Or perhaps it isn't to you.

I don't know what you meant when you wrote: "From what you have said already I know you will feel the same about Trump's (a one man pandemic) attempt to buy for exclusive US use, German anti-virus technology. It is to Germany's credit they refused."

Are you suggesting I agree with Trump? If so, I have no idea how you came to that conclusion. If I am misinterpreting your comment, that is my mistake and I apologize. But it appears that you are attributing to me something I never said or suggested.

Bill

_____________________________

And the end of the fight is a tombstone white,
With the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here,
Who tried to hustle the East."

--Rudyard Kipling
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 23 2020 19:03:04
 
El Burdo

 

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RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to Piwin

  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 23 2020 19:04:23
 
El Burdo

 

Posts: 596
Joined: Sep. 8 2011
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to BarkellWH

BarkellWH - I actually read your posts, generally for the view of the GOP in matters political so I don't know what the purpose of repeating them in speech marks is meant to achieve. To all intents and purposes Pan-demic means Worldwide so you seem to be referring to a failure of imagination as it 'could' have been imagined but wasn't. If not that, what?

I was surprised at your original comment (quoted from Black Swans) as I am almost too familiar with your career representing the US in various foreign climes. Nonetheless I can't nuance my way to any sense in your response above so let's forget it.

I can't say I am surprised at what has happened, no, both the spread and subsequent behaviour of people in their muted panic. Insofar as governments, particularly in the US, serve their paymasters I was surprised to see how our shower folded on the matter of salaried benefits, albeit not to all.

Going back to 'I read your posts', I have been pleasantly surprised at your direct negative assessments of Trump over several of your posts so I was anticipating that you would find his behaviour reprehensible too. Instead you find mine so.

I'd add James Ellroy's Perfidia and This Storm to your reading list for a bit of extra bandwidth.
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 23 2020 19:51:51
 
BarkellWH

Posts: 3245
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to El Burdo

El Burdo, my posts reflect my own thinking on various topics. They do not reflect the "GOP" as you put it. I consider myself, and always have, a "classic conservative," something that no longer exists in the Republican Party, which has been completely co-opted by Trump, who, by the way, is not anywhere near a classic conservative, or a conservative at all, for that matter.

You correctly note that I have been negative, with good reason, in my assessment of Trump. You, however, misread my comment when you state, "so I was anticipating that you would find his behaviour reprehensible too. Instead you find mine so." I of course find Trump's behavior, both in this crisis and in his overall actions as an individual and president, reprehensible. I certainly did not indicate that I found your behavior or comment reprehensible. As I stated, I simply did not understand what you were driving at when you linked "what I have already said" with how I feel about Trump trying to buy the German anti-viral vaccine.

I suppose this is another example of how the internet and various fora can lead to misunderstandings that take two or three back-and-forths to straighten out, something that could be done almost instantaneously in a face-to-face conversation. Such is our modern world of communication.

Bill

_____________________________

And the end of the fight is a tombstone white,
With the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here,
Who tried to hustle the East."

--Rudyard Kipling
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 23 2020 20:43:48
 
El Burdo

 

Posts: 596
Joined: Sep. 8 2011
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to BarkellWH

I wasn't saying you're a mouthpiece for the GOP, Bill, more a flamenco version of Eisenhower. Or one of Stadler and Waldorff.

You are on the money re online communication. It's a positive bearpit - it disinfects nuance and amplifies people's insecurities. I am only occasionally a bedfellow.

Anyway, good to talk. Look after yourself.
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 23 2020 21:03:04
 
Ricardo

Posts: 12996
Joined: Dec. 14 2004
From: Washington DC

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to El Burdo

quote:

Actions such as support for a national wage are being dragged out of them by pubic pressure.


Pubic pressure? Ouch!!!

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www.ricardomarlow.com
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 24 2020 3:13:22
 
El Burdo

 

Posts: 596
Joined: Sep. 8 2011
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to Ricardo

quote:

Pubic pressure? Ouch!!!

Not sure if it works - but we should try
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 24 2020 9:42:20
 
Arash

Posts: 4409
Joined: Aug. 9 2006
From: Iran (living in Germany)

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to flyeogh

1) More self isolation of countries
2) focus back on self sufficency for a lot of products, instead of outsourcing everything to cheap labour countries, less globalization
3) The realization that we are not on top of the food chain, those small invisible little fuc.kers are
4) Maybe less wars amoung eachother since every country will be financially fu.cked for a long period of time, and public sentiment could be strongly against new huge wars. At the end of the day, if we survive this with a blue eye and a broken leg, this could have some positive results if mankind have a common enemy, they focus less on killing eachother

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 24 2020 12:47:52
 
flyeogh

Posts: 729
Joined: Oct. 13 2004
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to Arash

quote:

every country will be financially fu.cked for a long period of time


Arash I like all of those but my big worry is that the above quote just leaves the power ratios exactly where they are.

I, many years ago, invested in commodities. I lost a lot of money. I learned that power has nothing to do with the possessor of the commodities, but with he who controls the market.

I still think there is a good chance the EU will come out relatively badly from this (quietly I hope so) but that little will be learnt on the global stage. The problem as I see it is that the company that rejects the instant chinese factory supply route, having learned the lesson, will simply go bust. But I hope I'm wrong

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nigel (el raton de Watford - now Puerto de Santa Maria, Cadiz)
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 24 2020 13:33:43
Guest

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Jul. 28 2020 9:13:57
 
flyeogh

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Joined: Oct. 13 2004
 

RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to Guest

quote:

I encourage you to intensely enjoy what you like most and to practice any sport such as climbing.
or possibly flamenco???

Sorry couldn't resist. I did do a little climbing many years ago in the Lake District
(UK), and more recently some mountain trekking. Glad I tried climbing but not something I wanted to focus on - but I see the appeal.

But I hope many are using their time to increase their skills. For many it will be a tougher world and skills are always useful. Certainly I'm seeing greater interest in my English lessons here in Spain.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Jul. 28 2020 14:13:56
 
mark indigo

 

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RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to Guest

quote:

my favorite sport, climbing


your nails?!!!

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Jul. 28 2020 19:26:47
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