RE: COVID-19 start of a new era

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RobF

Posts: 1611
Joined: Aug. 24 2017

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to kitarist)

quote:

It doesn't matter that there would still be millions of people without immunity to it if the virus got destroyed within its last infected host. Am I missing something?

Sorry for the late reply, Konstantin, when I read that post I somehow interpreted it as an indication you understood that I agreed with you. I do agree with what you’ve been saying.

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 21 2020 1:00:47

kitarist

Posts: 1715
Joined: Dec. 4 2012

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to RobF)

quote:

when I read that post I somehow interpreted it as an indication you understood that I agreed with you

I did mean it that way. Sorry I think I drifted off there speaking to no one in particular, just speaking in general. That wasn't directed at you.

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Konstantin

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 21 2020 1:30:25

kitarist

Posts: 1715
Joined: Dec. 4 2012

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to kitarist)

quote:

With exponential growth when no effective measures are in place: the number of confirmed cases doubles every 3 days or so. The only difference in the current absolute totals is the offset/lag that different regions have. But as long you start from the day D of about 100 cases or so (so that the numbers are large enough not to be skewed by data artifacts), you will get roughly:
100 cases on day D
200 cases by D+3
400 cases by D+6
800 cases by D+9
...
3200 cases by D+15 (half a month later)
...

Funny someone drew today something very similar to what I was describing above. Except it turns out the rate of doubling that fits best the actual data is about 2.43 days(*), not 3 days (or as they say it equivalently, 33% increase daily). Also note the y-axis is logarithmic, so an exponential increase would be represented by a straight line. That's the dashed straight line with "33% daily increase".

Note that the US is currently on a trajectory with a doubling even faster than that.

(*) I think the right calculation is ln(2)/ln(1.33) which is 2.43 or so.

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Konstantin

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 21 2020 1:47:16

Ricardo

Posts: 14799
Joined: Dec. 14 2004
From: Washington DC

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to kitarist)

quote:

ORIGINAL: kitarist

quote:

With exponential growth when no effective measures are in place: the number of confirmed cases doubles every 3 days or so. The only difference in the current absolute totals is the offset/lag that different regions have. But as long you start from the day D of about 100 cases or so (so that the numbers are large enough not to be skewed by data artifacts), you will get roughly:
100 cases on day D
200 cases by D+3
400 cases by D+6
800 cases by D+9
...
3200 cases by D+15 (half a month later)
...

Funny someone drew today something very similar to what I was describing above. Except it turns out the rate of doubling that fits best the actual data is about 2.43 days(*), not 3 days (or as they say it equivalently, 33% increase daily). Also note the y-axis is logarithmic, so an exponential increase would be represented by a straight line. That's the dashed straight line with "33% daily increase".

Note that the US is currently on a trajectory with a doubling even faster than that.

(*) I think the right calculation is ln(2)/ln(1.33) which is 2.43 or so.

Russia didn’t get it because they drink vodka?

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REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 21 2020 14:24:38

kitarist

Posts: 1715
Joined: Dec. 4 2012

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Ricardo)

quote:

Russia didn’t get it because they drink vodka?

They would have had barely more than 100 declared cases at the time this graph was first drawn, so not relevant; but of course if they don't test, they would seem to have not very many cases. They claim to have about 300 now, which would still be not very interesting to put on that graph along the others.

As to vodka, it is possible their homemade vodka is 60+ % alcohol, so it might have some effect...

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Konstantin

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 21 2020 17:22:57

Piwin

Posts: 3559
Joined: Feb. 9 2016

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to kitarist)

quote:

Only Boris effing Johnson in the UK was making some noises about something like this, and he is just.. stupid.

FWIW, just as an update, an iteration of this idea (let it run its course until we reach herd immunity) just made the opinion page of the New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html

To me that suggests this idea has considerably more traction than you think.

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REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 22 2020 3:01:55

kitarist

Posts: 1715
Joined: Dec. 4 2012

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin)

quote:

To me that suggests this idea has considerably more traction than you think.

Damn. That's bad.

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Konstantin

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 22 2020 6:31:20

Richard Jernigan

Posts: 3430
Joined: Jan. 20 2004
From: Austin, Texas USA

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to kitarist)

Here’s an informative article about the effort to develop a vaccine for COVID-19. I learned some things about the development of vaccines.

https://tinyurl.com/umgdnvn

RNJ

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 22 2020 14:15:43

RobF

Posts: 1611
Joined: Aug. 24 2017

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to kitarist)

Here’s a statistics site that appears to be maintaining quite current updates. It provides the option to toggle the graphs between linear and log modes, which may be helpful for identifying trends.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 22 2020 14:38:20

Ricardo

Posts: 14799
Joined: Dec. 14 2004
From: Washington DC

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Richard Jernigan)

Just watch the movie Contagion. It’s pretty much step by step going like the movie. From bat to vaccine it’s about a year of hell.

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REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 22 2020 16:08:44

devilhand

Posts: 1598
Joined: Oct. 15 2019

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to RobF)

Heres an article I read a few months ago. I didnt take it seriously. But for those who are interested. It's about flamenco as a tool for psychotherapy.

https://www.casadelarteflamenco.com/blog/en/flamenco-and-mental-health-studies-that-prove-their-links/#

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REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 22 2020 18:00:05

dartemo1

Posts: 76
Joined: Apr. 21 2010

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to devilhand)

Another interesting reading
https://psyarxiv.com/emq8r/

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 22 2020 20:09:32

kitarist

Posts: 1715
Joined: Dec. 4 2012

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to kitarist)

Here's one where the timing of the lockdown is indicated with a star; the graph starts for all at the 10th case (instead of at the 100th like the graph I posted the other day) since some did a lockdown before they reached 100th case:

And this graph shows Russia too, in the middle of the bottom row, (among others); it tracks UK, more or less.

The "live" graphs, including the first one I posted the other day, are here: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

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Konstantin

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 22 2020 21:37:32

flyeogh

Posts: 729
Joined: Oct. 13 2004

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to RobF)

A little ray of hope

. (Nothing more than that as it might just be a blip

).

Taking the 6 western European countries with the most cases (Italy+Spain+France+UK+Germany+Switzerland), their total daily rate of new cases was 20% less over 48 hours. All 6 had a reduction from Friday's figure to that of Sunday.

Looking back I see no evidence that the weekend was responsible for this reduction - in fact quite the reverse.

Even if it is a blip I'll take it

I'll say no more but can't wait for tonight's figures. Fingers crossed.

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nigel (el raton de Watford - now Puerto de Santa Maria, Cadiz)

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 23 2020 4:48:48

Neil

Posts: 78
Joined: Oct. 29 2018

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to RobF)

Spain has gone up again today unfortunately :(

Friday, March 20: 3494 new cases and 262 new deaths
Saturday, March 21: 3925 new cases and 288 new deaths
Sunday, March 22: 3272 new cases and 391 new deaths
Monday, March 23: 4321 new cases and 410 new deaths

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 23 2020 11:39:27

Arash

Posts: 4495
Joined: Aug. 9 2006
From: Iran (living in Germany)

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Ricardo)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ricardo

Just watch the movie Contagion. It’s pretty much step by step going like the movie. From bat to vaccine it’s about a year of hell.

Watched it two weeks ago.
Scary how that movie which was made 6 or 7 years ago pretty much is exactly whats happening now.

By the way, looking at the total number of deaths reported compared to the total number of cases reported for some countries like Spain, Iran, Italy and comparing those numbers to other countries, pretty much shows that there must be a very large number of unreported cases in those countries. So these numbers can be quite misleading , its probably around 10 times higher. Of course factors like the terrible situation of hospitals must be considered too when looking at the number of deaths, but still.

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REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 23 2020 12:11:58

Escribano

Posts: 6415
Joined: Jul. 6 2003
From: England, living in Italy

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Ricardo)

An excellent (and pretty accurate) film except that the length of incubation was way too short, so they would probably have never found patient zero. Still, artistic licence. I wonder what the chances are of the CDC finding a vaccine under the current administration?

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REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 23 2020 14:57:47

Richard Jernigan

Posts: 3430
Joined: Jan. 20 2004
From: Austin, Texas USA

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Escribano)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Escribano

[...]I wonder what the chances are of the CDC finding a vaccine under the current administration?

There will continue to be buffoonish news conferences, but people like Fauci step up to the microphone and push back. Even Trump-appointed Secretary Azar pushes back via the news media.

While Fauci said he and the President "disagree on some things," he described Trump as responsive: "He goes his own way. He has his own style. But on substantive issues, he does listen to what I say."

https://tinyurl.com/sw7kxng

The hiccup right now is that Republicans and Democrats in the Senate can't agree on the next wave of relief measures. Nowadays with filibustering routine, it takes more than a majority to pass anything in the Senate, and the Republicans have two out sick with COVID-19.

Nobody but the negotiators and a few insiders seem to know what's actually in the Republican bill, but the Democrats' willingness to take on the huge political risk of opposing it makes me pretty suspicious. House Democrats say they will pass their own bill after negotiations with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.

Congress has been hamstrung by polarization, maybe even as badly as the administration has been damaged by the people at the top.

RNJ

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 23 2020 23:30:53

Piwin

Posts: 3559
Joined: Feb. 9 2016

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to kitarist)

quote:

Damn. That's bad.

And Trump today: "if it were up to doctors, they would say let's keep it shut down"...
If it were up to doctors...ffs...

If ever you want some release re: that op-ed:
https://twitter.com/gregggonsalves/status/1241790695100252168 (whole thread, not just that one tweet)
Damn that was satisfying to read.

And here's his response when he finally calmed down: https://twitter.com/gregggonsalves/status/1242021045437071360
It includes some links to some interesting articles.

_____________________________

"Anything you do can be fixed. What you cannot fix is the perfection of a blank page. What you cannot fix is that pristine, unsullied whiteness of a screen or a page with nothing on it—because there’s nothing there to fix."

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 24 2020 1:09:28

Richard Jernigan

Posts: 3430
Joined: Jan. 20 2004
From: Austin, Texas USA

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Piwin

And Trump today: "if it were up to doctors, they would say let's keep it shut down"...
If it were up to doctors...ffs...

Now I read in the Washington Post that Trump and his toadies in the White House are discussing “restarting the economy” by killing a few million people. Surely the survivors will vote for him out of gratitude? After all, aren’t most people really psychopaths like him, just trying to put up a good front?

A more charitable, but no more encouraging interpretation is that Trump simply doesn't understand the implications of the virus's high transmissibility under ordinary social conditions, and its high mortality rate.

After all, many people pointed out that his casinos were doomed from the start by their high debt service cost and unrealistic revenue projections. This advice was given by many, including the New Jersey casino regulatory commission. He promised them to limit the cost of additional debt. However, apparently unable to subtract and multiply, he just kept adding debt at exorbitant interest rates that violated his promise to the commission, and ignored, or simply failed to understand the consequences. When he finally realized he was going broke he figured out his escape route, or someone explained it to him.

He shifted personal debt onto the casinos, while charging unconscionable fees to the corporations that took on the debt. Then the corporations went bankrupt, stiffing their shareholders and bringing down numerous businesses still owed money for work they had done.

Now he brags that he made money in Atlantic City.

What's discouraging is that once Trump latches on to a bad idea, nothing can dissuade him from eventually implementing it. Despite Tillerson, McMaster and Mattis, Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear agreement, moving Iran much closer to having atomic weapons and re-empowering the right wing factions who compose his enemies in Iran.

Despite Mattis resigning over it, Trump abandoned the Kurds in Syria. Someone had to explain Mattis's resignation letter to Trump, who didn't realize what it meant until three days later.

So far I have bitten my tongue and refrained from asking my Trump supporting friends whether they appreciate the inherent danger in hiring a bully to protect themselves.

It's time to get out a guitar and devote my attention to it.

RNJ

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 24 2020 3:08:29

Piwin

Posts: 3559
Joined: Feb. 9 2016

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Richard Jernigan)

One of the things that bothers me the most about what these people are proposing is how long at-risk groups would have to be isolated. The UK has now changed its tune, but just last week it was saying that people over 60 had to be isolated for 3 months while everyone else went along with their lives. And that was just the start. How long does it take to reach herd immunity and for it to be safe for at-risk groups to come out again? 3 months? 6? 1 year? Some American politician (I want to say he was from your neck of the woods but I forget) said something along the lines that seniors would just "take care of themselves". Well **** that. I want to see my parents again before hell freezes over and I would much rather we all completely isolate for 1 month or so instead of having to isolate them for much longer. And I'm sure they would also like to see their children and grandchildren before 2021 or god knows when. If they do this, this is the breakdown of what to me is one of the most fundamental kinds of solidarity, namely solidarity between generations within families.

It baffles me that they are willing to consider this before ever considering any changes, even temporary, to our economic system.

Anyway, I should also get back to focusing on the guitar. Just had to get that out of my system

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"Anything you do can be fixed. What you cannot fix is the perfection of a blank page. What you cannot fix is that pristine, unsullied whiteness of a screen or a page with nothing on it—because there’s nothing there to fix."

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 24 2020 8:06:08

BarkellWH

Posts: 3458
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Richard Jernigan)

quote:

Now I read in the Washington Post that Trump and his toadies in the White House are discussing “restarting the economy” by killing a few million people. Surely the survivors will vote for him out of gratitude? After all, aren’t most people really psychopaths like him, just trying to put up a good front?

A more charitable, but no more encouraging interpretation is that Trump simply doesn't understand the implications of the virus's high transmissibility under ordinary social conditions, and its high mortality rate.

After all, many people pointed out that his casinos were doomed from the start by their high debt service cost and unrealistic revenue projections. This advice was given by many, including the New Jersey casino regulatory commission. He promised them to limit the cost of additional debt. However, apparently unable to subtract and multiply, he just kept adding debt at exorbitant interest rates that violated his promise to the commission, and ignored, or simply failed to understand the consequences. When he finally realized he was going broke he figured out his escape route, or someone explained it to him.

He shifted personal debt onto the casinos, while charging unconscionable fees to the corporations that took on the debt. Then the corporations went bankrupt, stiffing their shareholders and bringing down numerous businesses still owed money for work they had done.

In my opinion, Trump is both ignorant and stupid. There is a difference between the two. To be ignorant is to lack knowledge or be unaware of something. To be stupid is to have your ignorance enlightened by those who know something about it, but to ignore their explanation and double down on your ignorance. Trump has demonstrated both ignorance and stupidity in spades.

I fail to see how those who voted for Trump could not see that he was a fraud and a charlatan from the beginning. The saga of the casinos and other businesses are a perfect example. A smart businessman? Hardly. Trump filed for bankruptcy five times. That is hardly a demonstration of good business practices. Remember the fraudulent "Trump University," in which he fleeced students out of tuition, including education loans, but provided none of the high-powered business leaders promised.

Trump's disgraceful criticism of our intelligence community contrasts blindingly with his praise of Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un. As does his disgraceful (from the very beginning of his presidency) criticism of our NATO partners, suggesting NATO was obsolete, with Russia poised on the borders of the Baltic countries and its war against Eastern Ukraine, not to mention the severance of Crimea.

Trump makes everything--literally everything--about himself. His self-flattery knows no bounds and is based on nothing, absolutely nothing. The other day he was whining that he "sacrificed" a lot of money he could have made by being president. You may have noticed that Tony Fauci, who apprently has incurred Trump's displeasure, did not appear at the Coronavirus briefing Monday. Fauci is the one expert that people can trust, but if he is no longer in Trump's entourage, we will have to listen to him via other venues.

Bill

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And the end of the fight is a tombstone white,
With the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here,
Who tried to hustle the East."

--Rudyard Kipling

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 24 2020 15:57:05

BarkellWH

Posts: 3458
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Richard Jernigan)

quote:

Now I read in the Washington Post that Trump and his toadies in the White House....

This is a White House and, to a very large extent, Cabinet, filled with toadies and sycophants. And the biggest toady and sycophant is Vice President Mike Pence. I don't know which would be worse, continuing with Trump as president or removing him via the 25th Amendment and installing Pence as president. Every time Pence gets up on the podium he looks like something out of Madame Tussaud's Wax Museum, as he dutifully sings the praises of Trump.

Bill

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And the end of the fight is a tombstone white,
With the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here,
Who tried to hustle the East."

--Rudyard Kipling

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 24 2020 16:47:50

El Burdo

Posts: 632
Joined: Sep. 8 2011

[Deleted]

Post has been moved to the Recycle Bin at Dec. 21 2022 21:32:49

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 24 2020 17:26:52

flyeogh

Posts: 729
Joined: Oct. 13 2004

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to RobF)

Well great to see that several European countries have ended the Exponential rise in new daily case rates. And to see the highest number of daily cases for Switzerland and Italy being over a week ago (using https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus for numbers).

And a new report in the UK from Imperial college showing deaths from the CCPVirus could be less than those of seasonal flu and less than the numbers predicted by previous models.

Fingers crossed that next we see recovery figures climbing until they overtake new cases. It does seem what is classed a recovery and quite when it is reported varies from country to country but I guess within 2 weeks we will see.

Then hopefully excess resources can be targeted at Africa and countries around the world who have limited health service resources.

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nigel (el raton de Watford - now Puerto de Santa Maria, Cadiz)

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 29 2020 9:21:56

JasonM

Posts: 2054
Joined: Dec. 8 2005
From: Baltimore

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to BarkellWH)

quote:

Every time Pence gets up on the podium he looks like something out of Madame Tussaud's Wax Museum, as

very accurate description

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 29 2020 22:45:10

ernandez R

Posts: 737
Joined: Mar. 25 2019
From: Alaska USA

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to RobF)

Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement: and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

George Santayana

Copied from wiki whilst their back was turned.

HR

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I prefer my flamenco guitar spicy,
doesn't have to be fast,
should have some meat on the bones,
can be raw or well done,
as long as it doesn't sound like it's turning green on an elevator floor.

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REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Mar. 30 2020 0:28:03

kitarist

Posts: 1715
Joined: Dec. 4 2012

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to flyeogh)

quote:

Fingers crossed that next we see recovery figures climbing until they overtake new cases.

Spain seems to have "turned the corner" - active cases (yellow) have now started to decrease; the daily number of recoveries is larger than that of new cases! Italy is not far behind as well.

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Konstantin

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Apr. 12 2020 19:54:23

BarkellWH

Posts: 3458
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to kitarist)

Sweden's laissez faire approach to the Coronavirus is being emulated in the Western Hemisphere by Nicaragua. While other Central American countries are observing "stay-at-home" and "social distancing" advice, Nicaraguans are advised to go to the beach, attend sporting events, and generally mix as always.

The dictatorial president, Daniel Ortega, has not been seen or heard from in public for a month, and his vice president, and wife, Rosario Murillo has been making all governmental announcements. This has led some to question whether Ortega himself might have the Coronavirus, or perhaps be dead. Nicaragua is the second poorest country in the Western Hemisphere after Haiti, and its health system is precarious as it is.

Bill

_____________________________

And the end of the fight is a tombstone white,
With the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here,
Who tried to hustle the East."

--Rudyard Kipling

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Apr. 12 2020 22:07:32

Ruphus

Posts: 3782
Joined: Nov. 18 2010

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to RobF)

Blessed are the ones who have no notion of species´ extinction and tilting habitat earth.

And moreover are those who won´t realize reign of pharaohs by either plutocracy or autocracy. And yet the humanism developing under Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street, Co. & factotums.

So, possibly shocking to realize what it takes to come out of the pandemy caused pause of economy without a hefty day after scenario; and that (though still hard for me to believe that such a portion of rationality and foresight could be reaching to blind money aristocracy) there might hypothetically be a partial strain of public benefit coming through and on its way.

Unexpected ray of light

REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE | Date Apr. 16 2020 15:09:19