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RE: COVID-19 start of a new era   You are logged in as Guest
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RobF

Posts: 950
Joined: Aug. 24 2017
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Brendan

I was kind of alluding to this in my post describing how testing can be used to create a closed loop system. Without a vaccine there is no choice but to allow the virus to run its course, but measures can be taken to attempt to control the rate of infection and isolate or treat the vulnerable.

That’s why widespread and comprehensive testing is of such huge importance. Not only to flatten the curve to reduce infections and not overload the health system, but also to allow countries and societies to continue to function and exist. States do fail, and a breakdown in the social order during an epidemic is going to be far worse than the virus alone. Testing can help prevent this by allowing targeted social measures.

Until a vaccine or anti-viral medicine is discovered, there is no choice but to try to control the rate of infection through social distancing and isolation and testing really is the only way to manage it. Without testing it’s like flying blind or twiddling knobs in the frantic hope for a best guess.

It’s not like anyone will have the level of control to choose who will be infected, it’s not like having “measles parties” or whatever. The virus is quite capable of taking care of that all on its own.
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 0:39:31
 
Piwin

Posts: 3164
Joined: Feb. 9 2016
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to RobF

Maybe worth considering:

https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 0:49:06
 
RobF

Posts: 950
Joined: Aug. 24 2017
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

Hard to get past his click-bait title, then not far into it, it’s hard to get past his insufferable smugness. I couldn’t read it.

But if tonight is anything like the past few nights, I’ll be up to all hours reading crap like this in a vain attempt to calm my shattered nerves, lol.

Or maybe I’ll try to find the works of that prophet, what was his name? Nostradumb-ass, or something like that...
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 0:59:24
 
Piwin

Posts: 3164
Joined: Feb. 9 2016
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to RobF

OK. I didn't pick up on that.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 2:13:28
 
RobF

Posts: 950
Joined: Aug. 24 2017
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

I probably shouldn’t be so hasty to be dismissive. I started reading it and by the point that I got to the heading “The Curve Is a Lie” I started to have a negative emotional reaction, so I put it down. I’ll try to get back to it at another time.
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 2:31:00
 
Richard Jernigan

Posts: 3015
Joined: Jan. 20 2004
From: Austin, Texas USA

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to RobF

Here's some good news:

https://tinyurl.com/vftxbw8

No new cases today in Wuhan.

Here's a long paper with a lot of data and mathematical conclusions:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

I haven't read the whole thing yet, so I can't form a judgment about it, but it has more data than anything I've come across yet, and it seems to take a professional epidemiologist's approach.*

RNJ

*Besides his other interests, my brother has a Master of Public Health degree from Harvard. We talked a little a few times about what epidemiologists do.
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 3:43:45
 
Richard Jernigan

Posts: 3015
Joined: Jan. 20 2004
From: Austin, Texas USA

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

quote:

ORIGINAL: Piwin

Maybe worth considering:

https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727


I skimmed it. Certainly looks worth considering. Tone didn't bother me. Didn't read it critically because it's time for bed: stuff to do tomorrow.

RNJ
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 4:05:44
 
kitarist

Posts: 1178
Joined: Dec. 4 2012
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

quote:

Maybe worth considering:

https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727


Ugh. All this smug contrariness, but alas he forgot that the area under the two curves is NOT the same (his key stupid assumption is that the areas are the same, so he can bleat about how impossibly long the spread would be in the flattened curve case); you get a lot less infections in total, not just a slower pace of spread, in the case with social distancing and other effective measures. He's added now a little update at the end there trying to kick up some dust basically admitting the concept he said was a lie was nothing of the kind. Nincompoop.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 5:07:32
 
kitarist

Posts: 1178
Joined: Dec. 4 2012
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to RobF

quote:

Without a vaccine there is no choice but to allow the virus to run its course


If there are no new infections due to stringent social distancing etc. measures, this is it. It is "dead". We can resume normal life, and it is not going to reappear unless someone eats an infected bat again or whatever.

People who have recovered do not carry the virus (their immune system destroyed it) and cannot infect others. So in theory when the last infected person recovers, even without a vaccine (and if we do it well there would be many many millions that never got it as we would have contained it worldwide) - where is the renewed spread going to come from? It doesn't matter that there would still be millions of people without immunity to it if the virus got destroyed within its last infected host. Am I missing something?

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 5:12:04
 
flyeogh

Posts: 729
Joined: Oct. 13 2004
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Richard Jernigan

quote:

I skimmed it. Certainly looks worth considering. Tone didn't bother me. Didn't read it critically because it's time for bed: stuff to do tomorrow.


I read it. I think it is best summed up with the author's own words:

My back-of-the-envelope calculation is not a proper simulation, or a good model of what’s going on either. Don’t cite it as such!

ps: Anyone who thinks the totally controlled and very limited WHO propaganda visit to China was anything other than Chinese propaganda loses credibility in my eyes.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 5:27:29
 
Piwin

Posts: 3164
Joined: Feb. 9 2016
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to kitarist

Well, I guess he must be doing something if so many of you are reacting this way! I don't see it.

Just a few posts up, we have a fellow foro member arguing that the best way forward is to allow the virus to spread at a controlled rate. That's an idea I've found somewhat regularly in some media sources as well (they justify current measures not as a way to eradicate the virus, but simply as a way to "slow it down", awaiting either a vaccine, herd immunity or something like that). The way I interpreted it, the article I linked to just offers some rough ideas as to why controlled propagation is not a viable solution and why instead we should favour full containment, and that's why I posted it.

Of course there are other factors that comes to mind when thinking of why controlled propagation isn't a viable solution. For instance, whether long-term immunity to this virus is even possible (like Brendan I thought this was a question mark at this point). If we don't know that, then going after herd immunity seems like one hell of a gambit. Then there's the fact that the more people get infected, the more chances there are for further mutations, which we probably don't want to risk. All in all, it seems to me that our ambition should be full containment and eradication of this virus, not just slowing down its propagation

I don't have any medical expertise at all. And a lot of things that might seem commonsensical to me may in fact be flat-out wrong. So this isn't the hill I'm going to die on! These are just fun musings to pass the time, but all that really matters to me right now is to follow the rules for containment issued by authorities I want to trust.

And that's probably why I found this article refreshing when a lot of you found it contrarian. It doesn't beat around the bush, at a time when trust in authorities is, perhaps not eroding, but, well, let's say they could be more straightforward. For weeks now I've been surrounded by messaging that I just feel isn't telling me the truth. And I think I can guess why: it's not some grand conspiracy or anything sinister, it's just that the authorities, and media, don't want to needlessly scare people. Ironically though, it ends up being scarier now because we all suspect they're not telling us the truth and many of us are left with a sense of not having any firm ground to stand on.

Take for example the fact that both in Spain and in France they announced full lock-down for 2 weeks. Now go looking for a Frenchman or Spaniard who actually believes the lock-down will be over in 2 weeks. Good luck! ^^ Nobody believes it will be over by then... And so you ask yourself: why then did they tell us just 2 weeks? Or why are they saying it's just about managing hospital case load and not about entirely containing and annihilating this thing from the planet? Personally, if you tell me: "we're going to have a full lock-down for 6 weeks (pick a number, but certainly more than 2...). We can't afford to just slow this thing down, we have to eradicate it", well, that would pump me up with drive, courage and even hope. Instead what I'm getting is a measly "we're having a sort-of shutdown for 2 weeks, maybe a bit longer, we don't really know, and really it's just about making sure that the hospitals aren't overloaded coz in the end it's going to spread either way"... In that context, an article with probably some poetic license but that's driving home the point that the endgame has to be containment, I'll admit, I find that refreshing.

On a related note, I suspect that if many (most?) of you go back to the beginning of this thread and look at your replies, you may find yourself thinking that, if you knew then what you know now, you might have replied differently. I still strongly disagree with sartorius, very much so, and I found the message about "lethargy" to be insulting to the fellow humans I know who are struggling everyday just to get by and manage to find even a shred of happiness on this odd planet. But I also think that, if those who inform me hadn't downplayed the gravity of the situation, as they seem to be doing even to this day, I would have replied very differently to him.

Anyway, I don't have much else to add on SARS-2 or whatever we're calling it. So I'll move on now after this long rant

oh, @kitarist, in the dust-kicking update, I hope you didn't miss this link: https://alhill.shinyapps.io/COVID19seir/
I thought the mathematically minded like you and Richard might enjoy that.

edit:
quote:

you get a lot less infections in total, not just a slower pace of spread


Not important, but I don't understand this point. He's working backwards from a fixed amount that is his (granted, rather casually defined) estimate of total cases required for herd immunity. How can there be any less cases in this argument? If there were any less, then we would not reach herd immunity. It has to be a fixed value otherwise he would be arguing something entirely different, no?

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 7:11:07
 
Brendan

Posts: 223
Joined: Oct. 30 2010
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

On COVID-19 fake news: https://twitter.com/andrejnkv/status/1235920594186706944?s=21

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 7:27:32
 
flyeogh

Posts: 729
Joined: Oct. 13 2004
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

quote:

Take for example the fact that both in Spain and in France they announced full lock-down for 2 weeks. Now go looking for a Frenchman or Spaniard who actually believes the lock-down will be over in 2 weeks. Good luck! ^^


Piwin you can't tell them it will be 6 weeks as sadly many would say "that's impossible. Let's ignore it".

(And they know the brighter ones will draw their own conclusions )

I saw a video this morning of youngsters flocking to the beach, bars, and discos of a beach resort (Florida I think). Hey man it's beach party time. We can't miss this."

And golden oldies (ladies) saying "But I can't miss my hair appointment" Bless 'em.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 8:32:29
 
RobF

Posts: 950
Joined: Aug. 24 2017
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

quote:

Just a few posts up, we have a fellow foro member arguing that the best way forward is to allow the virus to spread at a controlled rate.


Even in a contained area, social distancing and isolation can be practiced to flatten the curve. The two aren’t mutually exclusive.

My main point has been the importance of testing. In Canada, our chief medical officer gets that. At the local level, we have a mayor who is less than competent. Our local medical officer did an update a couple of days ago saying they wouldn’t be testing the general population because it wouldn’t make a difference anyways. I suspect she doesn’t believe that personally and was likely trying to deflect from the tragedy of having a lack of test kits.

But when I heard her say that, things started spiralling downhill for me, I’m still trying to dig myself out of the funk that threw me in.
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 9:20:14
 
RobF

Posts: 950
Joined: Aug. 24 2017
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to flyeogh

quote:

Piwin you can't tell them it will be 6 weeks as sadly many would say "that's impossible. Let's ignore it".


My friends in Granada are sure taking it seriously. Most of them are totally dependant on playing for money and my best buddy lives on a shoe string at the best of times. He sent me a picture the other day from the hospital. It looks like he walked into a window or something, cut himself, and now has a 2.5” scar across his face. He already looked pretty rough and tumble, but in a good way, he’s now worried the scar will make him look scary. Not good, but stress leads to this kind of thing.

Another recently posted that, for him, one of things he was missing the most was the hugs of his friends. These guys are hurting.

I think the whole world is gonna need a big abrazo by the time this is over....and I appreciate Richard’s posting of the potential good news out of China. It seems a lot of us here have engineering backgrounds or similar and it’s in our nature to draw some level of comfort or distraction from the data crunching articles, even the ones we disagree with. So, it’s all good to me, in that respect.
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 9:33:43
 
Piwin

Posts: 3164
Joined: Feb. 9 2016
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to RobF

quote:

The two aren’t mutually exclusive


Agreed.

Anyway, I just got back from grocery shopping. I gave up on Mercadona, the line was way too long. Fell back on Dia, where I only had to wait 30 minutes or so. Everyone was calm and kept a good safety distance from each other. I haven't seen the homeless guy who usually begs there ever since this started. Hope he's alright.

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"Anything you do can be fixed. What you cannot fix is the perfection of a blank page. What you cannot fix is that pristine, unsullied whiteness of a screen or a page with nothing on it—because there’s nothing there to fix."
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 10:18:30
 
mrstwinkle

 

Posts: 412
Joined: May 14 2017
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Brendan

quote:

Also: what powers would a government have to assume in order to control the rate at which healthy young people contract the virus?


I suspect you could do a fair bit with asking for volunteers.

The powers bit is difficult. However we're already in a state of lockdown. I'd personally think it is an easy sell to people - get sick now in a controlled environment for two weeks with minimal risk, then you can go about your normal life after.
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 13:03:45
 
JasonM

Posts: 1565
Joined: Dec. 8 2005
From: Baltimore

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

180 million cases in the US or 55 percent of the pop seems like a high estimate to me. The Harvard scientist he gets that estimate from states that’s for herd immunity. But is that 55% realistic with control measures in place which is the whole point of the flatten the curve example ?
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 13:09:19
 
RobF

Posts: 950
Joined: Aug. 24 2017
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to flyeogh

quote:

I saw a video this morning of youngsters flocking to the beach, bars, and discos of a beach resort


“When one of our kids says ‘I’m bored,’ the countdown is on before someone gets punched in the face,” said one Toronto mom. - Globe and Mail, Toronto

Differences in parenting, I guess...(not that I’m blaming the parents or advocating corporal punishment, just had a chuckle when I saw it, although I suspect I’m misrepresenting what she meant).
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 13:48:42
 
tele

Posts: 1451
Joined: Aug. 17 2012
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Brendan

Just read that ibuprofen could have increased the death rate in Italy, in any case it seems dangerous to treat the virus with that medicine.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 15:49:27
 
kitarist

Posts: 1178
Joined: Dec. 4 2012
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

quote:

oh, @kitarist, in the dust-kicking update, I hope you didn't miss this link: https://alhill.shinyapps.io/COVID19seir/


I saw it. The mistake there is to assume a constant rate of transmission (once the user sets it). This is obviously wrong, and we now have the example of , say, South Korea, to show this modelling is bunk. The rate slows down to essentially zero (see Hubei province as well). Therefore the total is much less.

Also, remember, we are going to have a vaccine within 1 year. So even with whatever the contrarian drew, that same graph, he should have cut it off after 1 year or so, thus cutting off the absurdly long tail, again making plain that the total cases would be much less.

It would be like this. I've graciously cut it off at about 1.5 years instead of 1.2 or 1 (time from beginning till a vaccine):



Do you see the reduced rate curve? It's there, but it is not that reddish line; it is the faint greyish thing barely distinguishable from the x-axis. Does that look like same area under both curves? Not to me.

Also see my second post below the one you quote from.

I guess I reacted strongly because the guy is going to get people killed; a contrarian post like that is a 'LOL nothing matters' post, implicitly advocating to do nothing different. Doing that means many thousands killed who did not have to die.

Images are resized automatically to a maximum width of 800px

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 16:37:38
 
kitarist

Posts: 1178
Joined: Dec. 4 2012
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

quote:

edit:

quote:

you get a lot less infections in total, not just a slower pace of spread



Not important, but I don't understand this point. He's working backwards from a fixed amount that is his (granted, rather casually defined) estimate of total cases required for herd immunity.


To put it in these terms, when you have effective social distancing and other measures, it is sort of equivalent to making the 'herd immunity' percentage go way down. Instead of 70% or whatever it is they assume, it is 1%, say (while the measures last). But that's really not a great way to put it as the infection can actually be eradicated and then immunity does not matter; so it's like the herd immunity requirement got down to 0%. No more virus.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 16:43:34
 
Neil

 

Posts: 62
Joined: Oct. 29 2018
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

quote:

why are they saying it's just about managing hospital case load


At the moment, that's exactly what the lockdown is about. Avoiding the collapse of the hospitals and the health system. Making sure the sick do not all get ill at once and ensuring that we can take care of every one of them.

After that, we will have to move to a new system, maintaining some of the current measures while slowly returning to normal life - then apply testing, monitoring and isolation procedures such as those in South Korea until we have a vaccine available.
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 16:53:35
 
Richard Jernigan

Posts: 3015
Joined: Jan. 20 2004
From: Austin, Texas USA

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to kitarist

quote:

ORIGINAL: kitarist
alas he forgot that the area under the two curves is NOT the same (his key stupid assumption is that the areas are the same, so he can bleat about how impossibly long the spread would be in the flattened curve case); you get a lot less infections in total, not just a slower pace of spread, in the case with social distancing and other effective measures. The concept he said was a lie was nothing of the kind. Nincompoop.


Thanks for putting your finger on it, Kitarist. Something looked phony when I glanced at it last night, but it was bedtime and I had appointments this morning. In fact I had made the calculation a couple of days ago. Population of Wuhan = 11.8-million, number of cases: 81,000. No new cases for two days in a row. Fraction of population infected before spread of disease was stopped 0.7%. The guy was assuming 60-70% of population infected under both scenarios. He was only off by a factor of 87.5.

Back in the '60s when computers were just becoming ubiquitous, we used to say, "GIGO" [garbage in, garbage out]. I worked at Austin's first high-tech startup in the '60s. There was a window, maybe 4 feet high by 20 feet long, where you could stand and watch the blinking lights on the impressive Univac mainframe. Down in one corner of the window was a cartoon. Two men in lab coats looked at a printout, an oversize mainframe computer in the background. One man was saying, "It would take 100 mathematicians working 50 years to make this mistake."

RNJ
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 17:14:45
 
Piwin

Posts: 3164
Joined: Feb. 9 2016
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to kitarist

I mean...to me it seems you're arguing the same thing he is... He's saying eradicate the virus, don't place your money on just slowing it down until we reach herd immunity within the total population, hence the need for heavy-hitting containment measures à la China and not just "slow it down" measures. It's like you're saying "the graph is bogus because it doesn't take into account the measures we can implement" when the whole point of the graph is to say this is why we have to implement these measures because if we don't you'd get something like this graph... As for a vaccine, we might have one within 1 year. Given the potential cost in human lives of letting this go on for however long it takes to find a vaccine, it seems unwise to me to bet on that when there is a much more immediate and certain option available to us.

Anyway, if others are reading this like a "LOL nothing matters" article, then I guess I'm misreading it, because I didn't get that at all, and in fact I interpreted it as saying quite the opposite of that. Thanks for your explanations but unfortunately I still don't see what the opposition is between your PoV and his. Best to just leave it at that. If I didn't get it by now, I probably never will. Sorry! See you guys around in the regular threads

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 17:20:46
 
kitarist

Posts: 1178
Joined: Dec. 4 2012
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

quote:

don't place your money on just slowing it down until we reach herd immunity within the total population


OK, but this is not what any health official was advocating; Only Boris effing Johnson in the UK was making some noises about something like this, and he is just.. stupid.

If you believe this above is the official WHO position, then I guess the article would make sense. But it isn't and it doesn't; it's just contrarian wan king off of a strawman. Sorry; not upset with you. I guess I could have reacted in a more measured way. I've just come across so much bull lately that I probably used this as a release valve

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 17:29:34
 
Ricardo

Posts: 12680
Joined: Dec. 14 2004
From: Washington DC

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Brendan

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brendan

quote:

Young healthy people need to contract coronavirus at a controlled rate.


I believe it’s not yet known whether having recovered from COVID-19 confers long-term immunity. If not, then those healthy young people would be contracting the virus at a controlled rate for nothing.

Also: what powers would a government have to assume in order to control the rate at which healthy young people contract the virus?

Yeah good in theory but everybody is dealing with different germs at different times. If you are fighting a virus and don’t realize it because you just feel tired or whatever, some other bug can come in and take advantage. That’s usually why you need antibiotics during a cold, because the bacteria gets a chance to move in while your are busy fighting the virus. So you can deliberately infect young people but it’s a Russian roulette regarding if their body can handle it at that moment. That’s why news of young people in icu or dying is of course coming in.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 17:37:49
 
kitarist

Posts: 1178
Joined: Dec. 4 2012
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to tele

quote:

Just read that ibuprofen could have increased the death rate in Italy, in any case it seems dangerous to treat the virus with that medicine.


Of course you can avoid it just in case, but here are some facts for context:

This seems based on a hypothesis which is in a not-peer-reviewed letter (pdf) in a journal (Lancet). There is no actual evidence that this happens, or has happened.

Maybe because of this, WHO has reversed its stance and now says there is no reason to avoid ibuprophen: https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1240409217997189128

For more details, see a virologist's thread here: https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1238946937916682241

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 17:45:26
 
Piwin

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Joined: Feb. 9 2016
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to kitarist

Well, European governments at least don't seem to have been giving much consideration to official WHO positions unfortunately. Maybe they do now, but the whole thing is moving so fast it's easy to forget what governmental positions were even just a week ago. For instance, in the very early stages WHO stressed time and time again the importance of testing, to no avail. Only the countries who had gone through SARS last time around were wise enough to do that. Now is not the time, but when this is over with, I hope we'll take the time to look back on how this whole thing developed. There are a few heads that need to roll (not literally of course, although who knows, I am French after all ).

No worries. I didn't take it personally (and even if I had, it wouldn't be a big deal!). I just don't want you to waste your time banging your head against a wall because it really doesn't seem like I'm going to get it ^^. I guess it just went over my head, which wouldn't be a first.

Everyone is under a lot of stress because of this. One of my parents is quarantined at home because of it, under doctor's orders, which means the other parent is also likely to have/get it. They're both in their early 60s with no preconditions, so at higher risk but also not in the worst possible category either. Of course, because of these initial policy failings, testing has been pretty much abandoned now so they won't know with any kind of certainty unless it gets worse. They just get to wait for a week or so and see if they can still breathe, and if they can't, then they get to be tested... That this kind of situation (and of course the much worse situations that we've all heard of) is happening at all is a political failure, not some unavoidable "act of God" or "force majeure". We know this because other countries did react in the right way and avoided this entirely. And that's probably part of the reason why I disagree with mrstwinkle and liked this article calling for more stringent action. I don't think it's out of fear. If it's driven by an emotional response I'd say perhaps it would be more out of resentment, resentment borne from the realization that this is a political failure.

Anyway, for real this time , back to the other threads for me! Gotta keep up the flamenco and compose some coronarias. ^^

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 18:29:16
 
Neil

 

Posts: 62
Joined: Oct. 29 2018
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to RobF

Couldn't see this posted anywhere but here is the recent Imperial College report that prompted the UK government to change their tack:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Mar. 20 2020 20:02:28
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