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sartorius

Posts: 206
Joined: Mar. 7 2017
 

COVID-19 start of a new era 

Seems that we are entering new times in which nothing will be as safe as we got used to. Good times to wake up from human lethargy we've been put into through easy access to technologies and IT taking 'too much care of us'.
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 16 2020 17:46:53
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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 16 2020 18:08:28
 
tele

Posts: 1451
Joined: Aug. 17 2012
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to sartorius

The virus is highly politicized and comes just at the time when it's useful for the united states. I hope it comes and goes like those before it, sars, ebola etc. It's really messing up income for countless people. However I don't see the point of this post.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 17 2020 12:51:29
 
flyeogh

Posts: 729
Joined: Oct. 13 2004
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to sartorius

quote:

Seems that we are entering new times in which nothing will be as safe as we got used to. Good times to wake up from human lethargy we've been put into through easy access to technologies and IT taking 'too much care of us'.


As rasqeo77 says I don't see this as a big deal. The virus has been modeled and vaccine design is well under way. And now the use of recovered persons to supply anti-body full plasma seems like it will add a new line of defense. And while the Chinese mainland numbers may be a little suspect COVID-19 is a small player compared with road and industrial deaths - which go on year after year, often killing the young who would have had a long productive life ahead of them.

Away from the China mainland the illness seems easy to contain and eradicate. Even in China the recovery rate to deaths is getting better as each day passes.

I guess if it got a hold in Africa, Indonesia or Pakistan there could be issues as they lack a health system able to cope.

But on politics and the economy will we learn the lesson of one source product parts? Entire car production lines closed because they are dependent on one part from one factory!!!! Dependency on one drug manufacturing source !!! Madness or what????

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nigel (el raton de Watford - now Puerto de Santa Maria, Cadiz)
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 17 2020 15:11:09
 
Ricardo

Posts: 12680
Joined: Dec. 14 2004
From: Washington DC

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to sartorius

Viruses stand no chance. Human population growth is insanely out of control. These viruses, germs and indeed the entire biosphere has no chance against the evil that awaits them. Vaccines genetics etc, it’s crazy what humans have to work with. The days of black plagues are long gone. Oh no a little quarantine has interrupted my busy week, or my cruise vacation 😂

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 18 2020 22:52:53
 
sartorius

Posts: 206
Joined: Mar. 7 2017
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to sartorius

Wait (not much I think) and see...
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 19 2020 7:41:53
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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 19 2020 8:42:13
 
Escribano

Posts: 6146
Joined: Jul. 6 2003
From: England, living in Italy

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to sartorius

Perception is the real enemy here and nothing to do with tech. "taking care of us" - besides enabling over-inflated predictions of doom. WHO estimates up to 650,000 deaths from influenza, worldwide.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 19 2020 9:06:40
 
flyeogh

Posts: 729
Joined: Oct. 13 2004
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Guest

quote:

Stop scaremongering for christ’s sake.


The internet is full of it. This morning a guy offered that the situation in Singapore was a serious indication of how bad things were getting. The numbers on the chart showed that Singapore had 4 new cases, no deaths and 5 fully recovered

No one wants to stop freedom of speech but fear mongering on the internet is out of control.

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nigel (el raton de Watford - now Puerto de Santa Maria, Cadiz)
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 19 2020 9:09:13
 
BarkellWH

Posts: 3146
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to flyeogh

quote:

No one wants to stop freedom of speech but fear mongering on the internet is out of control.


It's not just "fear mongering" that is out of control on the internet. Now any fool with access to a keyboard can post any crackpot theory on any subject and have a gullible audience willing to believe him and contribute to the insanity. Frankly, I think we were better off when publication of information on subjects from science and medicine to diplomacy and international relations was restricted to peer-reviewed journals instead of the crap circulating on the internet these days.

Pandemics taking over the world, autism caused by vaccines, black helicopters waiting to take over the US, and a host of other apocalyptic scenarios circulate freely and are believed by many. We have discussed conspiracy theorists several times on the foro, and the internet just increases the reach of their nonsense exponentially. Anyone who thinks human beings are advancing intellectually just has to look at the garbage on the internet to put that belief to rest.

Bill

_____________________________

And the end of the fight is a tombstone white,
With the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here,
Who tried to hustle the East."

--Rudyard Kipling
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 19 2020 17:44:46
 
flyeogh

Posts: 729
Joined: Oct. 13 2004
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to BarkellWH

quote:

Now any fool with access to a keyboard can post any crackpot theory


Bill, I can see the steam of frustration coming out of your ears from here in Spain. Which is definite proof that the world is flat

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nigel (el raton de Watford - now Puerto de Santa Maria, Cadiz)
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 20 2020 6:45:20
 
Richard Jernigan

Posts: 3015
Joined: Jan. 20 2004
From: Austin, Texas USA

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to BarkellWH

I lived for 18 1/2 years on a small tropical island. There were about 2500 Americans employed by the military base there, almost all civilians. The circulation of gossip and rumor on the "coconut telegraph" was notorious.

While I sat on a park bench one day I was approached by an acquaintance, who quoted a current rumor. The rumor was about me, and false.

My response was, "Rick, you know that you can sit right here on this bench and eventually hear any declarative sentence in the English language asserted as fact."

My secretary's husband was an air traffic controller. He made a hobby of starting rumors, and tracing the speed and extent of their spread. While true official notices of an approaching typhoon were posted, he said at lunch that the military was ordering huge C-5 air transports to the island, to take residents to Las Vegas, where hotel rooms were plentiful. At 2:30 that afternoon my secretary heard his fabrication repeated at the beauty shop, with additional details as to which hotels, and what meals would be provided.

As far as the most reputable mass print media go, I used to keep a copy of the Scientific American displayed on the bookcase above my desk. When, as intended, people would occasionally say something about it, I would give them my planned response.

"It has an article in it about the Space Surveillance Network. It is the only article I have ever read in a public source about a large military project which I was familiar with, which has no serious errors of fact or emphasis."

This was not always the case, even with Scientific American. There was an MIT physics professor whose articles criticizing military research and development projects were frequently published in the magazine.

I was casually acquainted with the author, and ran into him from time to time. Once I said to him, "I read your article on our ICBM countermeasures against the Soviet strategic missile defenses."

"Are you involved with that?"

"Yes. Rather deeply."

"I detailed in my article how to defeat all of your countermeasures."

"Yes. The Soviets are working on some of the ideas you mention. They will be successful in about ten years."

"Then your countermeasures will be useless."

"Precisely. But we know what the Soviets are working on, and we know how to defeat it. We will begin testing next year. This is war. Neither we nor the Soviets are standing still. We have consistently maintained about a ten-year lead in technology to counter their strategic missile defenses. You might mention this sort of thing in your articles criticizing the military."

This is just to illustrate that even the most reputable print media are not necessarily accurate in the facts they present, nor balanced in their views.

It is not to say that at present we maintain a lead in strategic missile technology over either the Russians or the Chinese.

RNJ
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 23 2020 2:42:51
 
sartorius

Posts: 206
Joined: Mar. 7 2017
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to sartorius

Nothing worse than a distorted assessment of reality, except maybe a reality DENIAL.

And now Italy...
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 23 2020 16:20:19
 
BarkellWH

Posts: 3146
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Richard Jernigan

Having dealt with academics on foreign affairs and national security issues during my career in the US Foreign Service and subsequent consulting career, the MIT physics professor's response regarding our countermeasures against Soviet strategic missile defenses and how the Soviets would defeat them sounds hollow on his part. I doubt that he was unaware of our efforts to design effective countermeasures to keep up with the Soviets. My guess is that he, like many in academia, had an animus toward the military and blamed the United States, in large part, for the arms race.

If I am correct, his omission of any mention of our efforts to counter future soviet missile defense advancements was deliberate and meant to portray the military and national defense community's efforts (not to mention the budget) as a wasted effort. I would reserve my greatest criticism for the editors of Scientific American for inadequate vetting of his article and failure to call him out before publishing it.

Bill

_____________________________

And the end of the fight is a tombstone white,
With the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here,
Who tried to hustle the East."

--Rudyard Kipling
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 23 2020 16:30:52
 
flyeogh

Posts: 729
Joined: Oct. 13 2004
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to sartorius

quote:

Nothing worse than a distorted assessment of reality, except maybe a reality DENIAL.

And now Italy...


Sartorius I’d be interested to know what your concerns with this virus are. Did you have the same concerns with AIDs, SARs and Ebola, or is there something unique about this virus for you? Maybe you’ve seen something I haven’t.

You mention Italy, and the sudden jump in numbers is I appreciate a concern – as small as they are. But at the same time countries like Belgium, Spain, Sri Lanka, India, Cambodia, Nepal and Tibet (I haven’t listed them all) have had cases and now have none. And Singapore (a massive transport hub and with a dense population) has 89 cases of which 51 have fully recovered. Zero deaths.

And while any loss of life is sad for the family and friends those most at risk are old and have ailments. I saw a case highlighted in a Video the other day where a guy over 80 died of pneumonia. No mention of the virus but there it was highlighted as an example statistic.

Don’t get me wrong you may be right to be fearful and this thing may mutate and kill millions. But I see no evidence to support that at the moment.

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nigel (el raton de Watford - now Puerto de Santa Maria, Cadiz)
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 23 2020 19:36:21
 
Escribano

Posts: 6146
Joined: Jul. 6 2003
From: England, living in Italy

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to sartorius

quote:

And now Italy...


You must be so chuffed.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 23 2020 21:40:25
 
Richard Jernigan

Posts: 3015
Joined: Jan. 20 2004
From: Austin, Texas USA

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to BarkellWH

quote:

ORIGINAL: BarkellWH

If I am correct, his omission of any mention of our efforts to counter future soviet missile defense advancements was deliberate and meant to portray the military and national defense community's efforts (not to mention the budget) as a wasted effort.


This was my working hypothesis.

quote:


I would reserve my greatest criticism for the editors of Scientific American for inadequate vetting of his article and failure to call him out before publishing it.

Bill


My working hypothesis also was that the editors of Scientific American shared the professor's animus against the military.

Having a lifetime of close association with the military, I bear them no ill will. However, i believe that since the Cold War, having by far the world's most powerful military has got the USA into at least as much trouble as it has kept us out of.

The professor's articles were "true" in the sense that they contained no lies. However they omitted relevant facts. The omissions might well have been meant to deceive.

I can't say that the Scientific American editors were aware of the professor's deceptiveness. On a subsequent occasion they displayed a surprising level of ignorance about the technology involved in a military R & D project.

The only widely published source I found reliable during the Cold War was "Aviation Week and Space Technology." Before they published an article they would consult a fairly wide range of experts in the subject matter.

Shortly after the huge terminal missile defense radar at Pushkino northeast of Moscow was discovered, a photo of it appeared on the front page of the New York Times. The next day I got a call from a reporter I knew who worked for AvWeek. He asked what was in the building.

I replied, "I'm sorry, I'm not allowed to say, but if they wanted me to work there, it had better be full of dirt." Later that day I had a call from Dick R., the highest non-political appointee in Department of Defense Research and Engineering.

After discussing another issue Dick said, "I got a call from AvWeek about Pushkino. They told me what you had said."

"What did you say?"

"I said that when we first saw it we thought it was to be Brezhnev's tomb."

Dick and I both had official access to information about the Pushkino radar, so we could say nothing about it. AvWeek found sources who were not "read in" to the intelligence info, but who had heard about it through the grapevine. AvWeek's "speculative" article proved to be pretty accurate, as far as it went.

The Pushkino radar in Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don-2N_radar

"The 1998 SIOP [U.S. Strategic Command's nuclear war plan] targeted this radar facility with 69 consecutive nuclear weapons."

RNJ
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 24 2020 0:04:12
 
sartorius

Posts: 206
Joined: Mar. 7 2017
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to sartorius

My fellow foro members and brothers,

I would like to tell you all that I just want to help you deal with the upcoming crisis. Unlike many, I put my ego/pride at my feet a long time ago and the things I humbly say or the info I share are just here to make you TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE TIME YOU HAVE LEFT before it gets real nasty.

This guy lives in the US and has a sensible approach to the situation:

  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 24 2020 6:28:42
 
flyeogh

Posts: 729
Joined: Oct. 13 2004
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to sartorius

Sartorius it takes 35 seconds of that video for the guy to lie. How can you expect anyone to take you, or him, seriously when you base your thinking on erroneous data?

The guy says "Italy has several cities under lock-down”.

The truth "In the regions of Lombardy and Veneto, a lock-down is in place in several small towns. For the next two weeks, 50,000 residents will not be able to leave without special permission".

The biggest danger to humanity is not a virus, but junk doom's day messages from people like yourself, creating unnecessary panic.

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nigel (el raton de Watford - now Puerto de Santa Maria, Cadiz)
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 24 2020 9:02:12
 
sartorius

Posts: 206
Joined: Mar. 7 2017
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to sartorius

Evidence is always better than words:

  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 24 2020 9:10:22
 
gerundino63

Posts: 1570
Joined: Jul. 11 2003
From: The Netherlands

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to sartorius

Panic is ok. As long as you are the first.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 24 2020 11:23:51
 
Piwin

Posts: 3164
Joined: Feb. 9 2016
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to gerundino63

Some years ago I read a lengthy piece on "survivalism" among Silicon Valley's wealthy elite (this Ethan Galstad fellow fits that label). They apparently sink massive amounts of money in toys they think they need for whatever version of the apocalypse they happen to enjoy. They then invite each other on their own podcasts and proclaim to the world how they have the key to everything, how they know what's going to happen, etc. etc.

Personally, I think it reeks of a desperate attempt to find meaning in their lives. I could of course be wrong, but it has always struck me that these Silicon Valley folks (generalizing of course) were full of themselves. As if all of human history was just a prelude to them. It takes several forms, and some of them are more optimistic, like this belief that they will be the generation to first become immortal through machines or whatever, but it's the same ridiculous ego trip. After all, they've accomplished so much. How can it be that they're no more important than some anonymous man living out his life in a remote village? Let us then reshape our view of the world to place us at the center, as the first to do X, or the only ones to survive Y, etc. Anything to make us more important than the rubble. Hard to do with the great equalizer that is death.

There's something rather absurd, and profoundly arrogant, to someone playing prophet to others, while claiming to be immune to ego/pride.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 24 2020 15:42:09
 
BarkellWH

Posts: 3146
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

quote:

There's something rather absurd, and profoundly arrogant, to someone playing prophet to others, while claiming to be immune to ego/pride.


Well said, Piwin.

Bill

_____________________________

And the end of the fight is a tombstone white,
With the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here,
Who tried to hustle the East."

--Rudyard Kipling
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 24 2020 16:09:13
 
Richard Jernigan

Posts: 3015
Joined: Jan. 20 2004
From: Austin, Texas USA

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

The World Health Organization's 35th daily report on the Corona Virus 2019 Outbreak:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200224-sitrep-35-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1ac4218d_2

It contains comprehensive data and expert perspective. The WHO website in general is far more informative and reliable than the musings of a serially failing software entrepreneur (Galstad) or a lone medical practitioner, no matter how well informed and well intentioned they may (or may not) be.

I was not a foot soldier, more like a battalion commander in the U.S. Army's response to the Y2K computer "problem." The Army's bureaucratic response was particularly ill suited to our own very specialized situation, but we were required to follow the mandated process. I became fairly well experienced in observing a large scale response to a potentially serious problem, whose probability of occurrence was almost completely unknown.

The responses of serious, well informed, intelligent and well intentioned people spanned a very broad spectrum. This seems generally to be the human response to a potentially catastrophic situation, whose outcome is wildly unpredictable. It seems to be even more the case when the great majority of people have little or no influence on the outcome.

My take on the coronavirus situation is that people have a responsibility to themselves to get informed from reliable and knowledgeable sources as to the seriousness of the problem and how (and whether) to avoid personal consequences. In addition they have a responsibility to society to find out how they can avoid contributing to the ongoing epidemic.

But people will vary widely in their responses and attitudes. I am reluctant to criticize anyone who expresses concern, but please guard against both over- and under-reaction based on scanty or unreliable information.

Time for a glass of cognac.

RNJ
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 25 2020 4:37:53
 
sartorius

Posts: 206
Joined: Mar. 7 2017
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Richard Jernigan

The WHO is the organization that banned Artemisia Annua from the whole world in 2016 because it was a threat to the pharmaceutical industry/lobby. Maybe you should reconsider your 'reliable sources'.

The last word always goes to God who says:


'To the incredulous I will show them who will live and who will die by My Will.'


Adiós.
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 25 2020 5:41:55
 
Piwin

Posts: 3164
Joined: Feb. 9 2016
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to sartorius

quote:

Maybe you should reconsider your 'reliable sources'.

The last word always goes to God who says:




_____________________________

"Anything you do can be fixed. What you cannot fix is the perfection of a blank page. What you cannot fix is that pristine, unsullied whiteness of a screen or a page with nothing on it—because there’s nothing there to fix."
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 25 2020 6:15:51
 
flyeogh

Posts: 729
Joined: Oct. 13 2004
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Piwin

One bit of possible good news . The pangolin seems to be in the frame for this virus. He seems to have been by chance in the right place to transfer the virus from bats to humans. But personally I think he is being stitched up.

However, if he takes the rap maybe the chinese will stop eating pangolins and stop using their scales in chinese medicine. It could in the long run save this poor little creature from extinction. Or he may get hunted to extinction as revenge!!! Funny old world

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nigel (el raton de Watford - now Puerto de Santa Maria, Cadiz)
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 25 2020 7:28:25
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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 25 2020 9:26:05
 
devilhand

 

Posts: 853
Joined: Oct. 15 2019
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to sartorius

Sometimes too much information is bad.

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  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 25 2020 13:27:02
 
RobF

Posts: 950
Joined: Aug. 24 2017
 

RE: COVID-19 start of a new era (in reply to Richard Jernigan

quote:

...people will vary widely in their responses and attitudes. I am reluctant to criticize anyone who expresses concern, but please guard against both over- and under-reaction based on scanty or unreliable information.

Time for a glass of cognac.


The voice of reason. Hear, hear (and cheers).
  REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |  Date Feb. 25 2020 15:20:14
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