estebanana -> RE: Dealing in the 1st Degree - the future of the market (Oct. 8 2023 6:59:26)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: RobF quote:
ORIGINAL: estebanana … Once a group of billionaires latches onto collecting something, they work to drive up the price ( like any crooked market strategy) but they are doing it on a scale that is billions and billions in trade. The extreme example is the attributed Leonardo da Vinci painting that showed up on the market five years ago and was bought by an oligarch - the price was over 400 million dollars, for a painting that art historians doubt is an actual Leonardo. The price was inflated to create wealth for the buyer. What I’m saying is that someday a Torres or a Les Paul will catch the attention of this sector of trade and will sell for 100 million and be out of reach of normal guitar loving collectors. I think we’re saying the same thing, except you didn’t manage to come across like a ranting conspiracy theorist about it like I was able to do. [:D] I also think you’re on the mark in what you’re suggesting, including the prediction about certain raw materials becoming collectable. It’s just I think it’s more symptomatic of a disease, rather than of some form of natural progression, and that makes me think it’s not sustainable. From the other thread: “ In 25 more years BR will not be wood anymore, it will be a form of currency and worth much more than it is now. It likely more valuable if it’s Not used to build guitars, but left as a potential material which serves as a form of material that has value as a currency.” I think that’s true. I think it’s already happened, in as much as its value is now more tied to its potential, which moves it into the realm of currency. There was a profile of a well known American guitar maker in the Guild publication about 20 years ago. He recently, 2 years ago, sold off a part of his collection of BR. In the interview in the GAL quarterly he said once you collect all the tools you need for building guitars there’s not much left to write off as a shop expense on your taxes every year. ( it takes what 5 years to pull all your major tools together? ) He then says what’s the most expensive material you can buy every year to have a shop supply expense to write off on your taxes? Brazilian Rosewood is the answer. So while many builders desire to supply their customers with this fine wood as a guitar making material, it also serves the guitar maker as a form of guitar making gold. Your major tools, sander, band saw, table saw ect. will likely not go up in value, right? But Brazilian rosewood will not only hold its already premium value, but it will increase in value. And if you sell it off before you retire ( or pass it to your family as part of your shop in the case of legacy guitar making families) you will not have to worry about your family paying any capital gains tax on your estate - if you have enough BR and I know makers who do, you could be holding tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars in BR. In that sense it’s like a retirement fund if you get in on it early. The way I see BR is that yes huh can make pretty fine guitars with it, but why waste it on a guitar when it’s more valuable as a retirement fund? You can make good guitars out of Cypress or several other woods. Wait until the Brazilian becomes even more valuable. The question is, at what point in your career does it become more profitable to sell the guitar set of Brazilian as is, instead of adding your labor to it to make a guitar? Isn’t it easier to just sell after holding it for twenty five or thirty years? 😂 I digress, but I’ve never been much of a clear thinker. 😂 I just find the Larry Gagosian type dealer interesting, he’s a bit disgusting in that he’s willing to try to sell one collectors painting to another collector without telling collector #1 he’s trying to sell his art to collector # 2 with out his consent. You have to read of listen to the whole article. But I already know sleazy guitar peddlers in San Francisco who do this at street level. I know skeezy guys with their own small shops or collections who try to sell instruments belonging to others and cut themselves in as a connection maker. The hubris of Gagosian is notable to the point that he’s an unusual phenomenon, he’s ultra intelligent, ultra sleazy and ultra shameless. Most great guitar dealers we work with have some scruples, most are trying their best to be honest. What I’m wondering is when will there be a Gagosian in guitar dealing? Not the venerable mostly honest guys we know now who deal, but when does the billionaire money confident royal sleazebucket arrive?
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