Richard Jernigan -> RE: predictions (Mar. 17 2020 6:31:27)
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ORIGINAL: BarkellWH life, even in adversity, is worth meeting on positive terms, the hoarders, naysayers, and negativity notwithstanding. Keep a positive attitude, and we'll get through this. Bill Well said, Bill. The statistics published on COVID-19 are for confirmed cases, where the presence of the virus has been verified by lab test. We don't know how many unverified cases there are, or have been. Of the verified cases, about 15% of people over the age of 80 have died. The proliferation of the virus in the USA follows the earliest stages of exponential growth in the worst situations: China, Iran, Italy. Larisa's best girl friend lives a bit north of Venice, so the apalling situation there is seldom out of our thoughts as we text back and forth daily. Over the weekend Austin schools and the university closed for indefinite periods, a city ban on large gatherings cancelled concerts, the hugely attended and economically very important SXSW festival, the motorcycle GP race, and a long list of others. The number of verified COVID-19 cases here is low at the moment, but increasing. I'm 82. Though I'm in reasonably good health, my parents lived to be 94 and 97, one of my mother's sisters lived to 101, the other to 103--the 15% statistic motivated me considerably. First thing I did was lay in about two weeks' supply of groceries, laundry detergent, etc. Hand sanitizer and rubbing alcohol had been completely bought up by panickers and price gougers, but there was an easy work-around: order 1.75 liters of Everclear (95% ethanol) delivered to my door from the wine and spirits shop. Next on the agenda was an appointment with my lawyer to update my will. It is important to me that my remaining assets be divided in a somewhat unconventional way--a purely emotional, one might even say irrational motive--but one that matters to me. It looks like that will get taken care of. A side benefit is that I'm finally taking my lawyer's advice to set up a medical power of attorney and a living will. Getting these things taken care of considerably relieved the stress of urgency. I reminded myself that I had faced nearly certain death a few times in the past, without totally losing it. Still, I found myself to be more on edge than usual-not a healthy position to be in. Then it occurred to me: I was focusing on the 15% probability of dying. Logically equivalent, but much better sounding is the implicit 85% probability of survival. Those are probably better odds than activities I was involved in up to about age 40: scuba diving in remote deep caves, paramilitary combat, a short span of years living outside the law, and riding motorcycles way, way too fast and too far. Stress level went down considerably when I shifted my attention from the dark side to the brighter side. While slicing the serrano peppers, tomatoes and onions for huevos revueltos a la mexicana tonight, i felt a tinge of the old joy of simply being alive at that particular moment. "What fools these mortals be!" Immortal Puck's repeated tagline in Shakespeare's "A Midsummer Night's Dream" When I went out to the mailbox this afternoon I encountered my new neighbors walking their dogs. They insisted on giving me their phone numbers, and urged me to call them if there was anything they could do for me. Nice people. Be well, my friends. Look to the brighter side. RNJ
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