Richard Jernigan -> RE: Is Logic Necessary To Win an Argument. (Feb. 5 2015 18:52:06)
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ORIGINAL: Miguel de Maria Bill, it seems like you are making a really good argument, but I'm not sure it what it has to do with me. Trust me when I say I am no follower of Wakefield or McCarthy. The people I know who are going on about measles are also Republican and church-goers. As a group, if you will permit me to paint with a broad brush, they believe in an invisible entity who snapped his fingers and created the universe, etc. They consider Evolution self-evidently incorrect. They think having a gun around the house is a good play. They are more or less happy we attacked Iraq, since, after all, 911. In their minds, global warming is a liberal PR plot. Forgive me if I fail to cede them, as a group, any undue respect for their intellectual rigor. Their arguments can be safely ignored. I must be missing the point. I am not a Republican. In religion I am agnostic. My sister-in-law criticizes me for my lack of church affiliation. Suspicion of authority and resistance to it has been a lifelong theme. When I was 19-year old university sophomore I declined further financial support from my family, since I was unwilling to follow their advice. I accept the theory of evolution as validated by the evidence. The evidence of anthropogenic global warming seems credible to me. I wrote a lengthy internet post questioning the credibility of the "intelligence" Powell quoted in his U.N. speech justifying the invasion of Iraq. It was based in part on my personnal experience in the intelligence business. I believe that rather than spreading democracy, the invasion of Iraq was a serious destabilizing factor for the whole Middle East, leading fairly directly to the rise of the Islamic State. (My son's friend Scott McClellan, G.W. Bush's Press Secretary, says in his book that spreading democracy was Bush's true motive for the Iraq war. The threat of weapons of mass destruction was just a way to sell it.) Though I was raised in the Air Force and the Texas ranch culture, I don't own a gun. As I have grown older and had more contact with the medical profession I have become much more cautious about accepting their advice. I have suffered potentially serious side effects from a prescribed medication. The side effects were misdiagnosed by the prescriber. Fortunately the effects appear not to have been lasting. Discussing this with my brother, a distinguished retired physician, and his wife who ran the Nurse Practitioner program at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston has, if anything reinforced my caution. As a child before the discovery of effective vaccines for them, I and my large extended family all survived measles, chicken pox, mumps and rubella. My brother and I, and many of my cousins were vaccinated against diptheria, tetanus, whooping cough and typhoid. We came into contact with all these, but were spared. We were spared from polio, perhaps by a rigid family imposed quarantine during the summer, despite the widespread devastation. Despite being about as far as one could imagine from your portrait of church going Republican pro-vaxxers, I still think general vaccination is a good idea, based on the evidence for herd immunity, and the low incidence of individual side effects. I appreciate and admire your concern for your family. As a parent I recognize the tendency to regard this responsibility as absolute. But as Stephen points out, each of us has a responsibility to the general public. Despite a lengthy career as mathematician, scientist and engineer, at one time recognized as an authority on statistical decision theory, I can't suggest any way to quantify this responsibility. RNJ
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