BarkellWH -> RE: Ukraine and Crimea (Mar. 5 2014 14:19:54)
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There is no evidence that the upheavals in Ukraine were "Western instigated." While Ukraine no doubt would be welcomed by the West, the West is not responsible for Russia's hold on the country, nor is it responsible for the Ukrainians' deposing of the Russian puppet Yanukovich. While I agree that Tymoshenko was corrupt, she was no more corrupt than was Yanukovich. And all the corruption and "robbing" of the people of Russia, Eastern Europe, and Ukraine is a product of the home-grown oligarchic "mafias" that have flourished in those countries since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. If you want evidence, just look at the coterie surrounding Putin. To suggest the "West" is behind it all is to willfully ignore the reality and evidence that have been playing out right before our eyes during the past 20 years. Regarding the current situation, there are a few things I think important to consider. Russia does have deep, historic links to Ukraine. That does not justify Russian hegemony over Ukraine, but I do think it needs to be understood that the very beginning of the Russian state was Kievan Rus' (centered in what is now Kiev) during the 9th to the 13th centuries. After the Mongols conquered Kievan Rus' in 1240, the center of the fledgling Russian state was centered on the Grand Duchy of Moscow, from which it expanded into Greater Russia. The Crimea, formerly a Khanate, was conquered by Russia in its drive to the South and had been Russian ever since, until Kruschchev ceded it to Ukraine in 1954. For more than 200 years, Russia has based a fleet in the Crimea, and today the Black Sea Fleet is based there. So Russia does have tangible strategic interests in maintaining a certain "protected" status over those elements of the Crimea important for the maintenance of its naval, military, and security assets. One last note on Ukraine. The divide among Ukrainians is more than just "Russophiles" and "Westerners." The country is religiously divided as well. The eastern part is predominantly Eastern Orthodox. The Western part is Uniate, i.e. they recognize the Pope and the Vatican as supreme, but practice a form of worship that includes many of the Eastern Orthodox rituals. My own opinion, for what it is worth, is that Putin will back off a bit, but not entirely. Putin is not Stalin, and he will not want to burn Russia's bridges to the West in spite of his obsession with "Great Russia." I think he will come to terms with a government in Kiev that will allow Russia to operate with a lot of autonomy in Crimea to secure its naval, military, and security interests; but Russia will not formally take the Crimea back. And I do not think that Putin will split off the eastern part of Ukraine. Moreover, the West should back off a bit on the encouragement of EU and NATO membership for Ukraine, at least for the foreseeable future. Cheers, Bill
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