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What big changes may result from this pandemic?
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BarkellWH
Posts: 3458
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC
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RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to flyeogh)
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I hesitate to speculate on what big changes may result from this pandemic, primarily because of the "Black Swan Theory." You may recall the book entitled "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," by Nassim Nicholas Taleb published in 2007, in which he posited that just because we see white swans all our lives does not mean there are no black swans in existence, and when a black swan appears it can upend our lives. It seems to me that this pandemic is an example of a "Black Swan" event. It's not that we could not imagine a pandemic, but I doubt if anyone imagined we would face a worldwide pandemic such as the Coronavirus as we are doing now. Not knowing how this will play itself out, both in terms of human health, sickness, and death; as well as in economic devastation in much of the world, it may end with a few more "Black Swans" that we cannot even imagine right now. Bill
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And the end of the fight is a tombstone white, With the name of the late deceased, And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here, Who tried to hustle the East." --Rudyard Kipling
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Date Mar. 22 2020 18:21:01
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BarkellWH
Posts: 3458
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC
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RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to El Burdo)
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quote:
Really? I think if the wargamers of the world haven't considered that the world may face a pandemic they ought to give up in shame. If they can wargame VX in the water supply, or the anticipated Tokyo Bay earthquake then they should have imagined something like this. I suspect they have. The reality of it is, Governments want to remain in power post-apocalypse and are avoiding recognising the realities of their socioeconomic model playing out. Actions such as support for a national wage are being dragged out of them by pubic pressure. Johnson's earlier plan was to allow the old and the poor and the homeless to be culled at Nature's unconcerned hand, rather than see the FTSE plunge. From what you have said already I know you will feel the same about Trump's (a one man pandemic) attempt to buy for exclusive US use, German anti-virus technology. It is to Germany's credit they refused. I have probably participated in more war games than you can imagine in my career in the US Foreign Service and as a consultant to US Defense Department contractors. As I stated in my comment above, "It seems to me that this pandemic is an example of a "Black Swan" event. It's not that we could not imagine a pandemic, but I doubt if anyone imagined we would face a worldwide pandemic such as the Coronavirus as we are doing now." There all kinds of scenarios of disasters that are "war gamed," but it is still a bit of a shock when something this bad and wide-spread occurs. Or perhaps it isn't to you. I don't know what you meant when you wrote: "From what you have said already I know you will feel the same about Trump's (a one man pandemic) attempt to buy for exclusive US use, German anti-virus technology. It is to Germany's credit they refused." Are you suggesting I agree with Trump? If so, I have no idea how you came to that conclusion. If I am misinterpreting your comment, that is my mistake and I apologize. But it appears that you are attributing to me something I never said or suggested. Bill
_____________________________
And the end of the fight is a tombstone white, With the name of the late deceased, And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here, Who tried to hustle the East." --Rudyard Kipling
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REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |
Date Mar. 23 2020 19:03:04
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BarkellWH
Posts: 3458
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC
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RE: What big changes may result from... (in reply to El Burdo)
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El Burdo, my posts reflect my own thinking on various topics. They do not reflect the "GOP" as you put it. I consider myself, and always have, a "classic conservative," something that no longer exists in the Republican Party, which has been completely co-opted by Trump, who, by the way, is not anywhere near a classic conservative, or a conservative at all, for that matter. You correctly note that I have been negative, with good reason, in my assessment of Trump. You, however, misread my comment when you state, "so I was anticipating that you would find his behaviour reprehensible too. Instead you find mine so." I of course find Trump's behavior, both in this crisis and in his overall actions as an individual and president, reprehensible. I certainly did not indicate that I found your behavior or comment reprehensible. As I stated, I simply did not understand what you were driving at when you linked "what I have already said" with how I feel about Trump trying to buy the German anti-viral vaccine. I suppose this is another example of how the internet and various fora can lead to misunderstandings that take two or three back-and-forths to straighten out, something that could be done almost instantaneously in a face-to-face conversation. Such is our modern world of communication. Bill
_____________________________
And the end of the fight is a tombstone white, With the name of the late deceased, And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here, Who tried to hustle the East." --Rudyard Kipling
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REPORT THIS POST AS INAPPROPRIATE |
Date Mar. 23 2020 20:43:48
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