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predictions
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RobF
Posts: 1611
Joined: Aug. 24 2017
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 RE: predictions (in reply to spain)
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I think the world is scared enough right now without worrying about that stuff. Everything is locking down and the streets are quiet. Spain is completely shutting down on Monday. That’s all going to help slow the spread and give over-burdened health care systems a chance, we can only hope.
But one thing I do know, is if this gets as bad as people fear, then we’re all going to get touched by it in one way or another. No one knows how it’s going to play out, but play out it will and when it does, I wouldn’t want to be one of the fear mongers, hustlers, scammers or billionaires who are taking from the crisis and not giving anything back. There are established news organizations who have started using the crisis to promote their paywalls. Sad. I think a lot of those people and organizations may find themselves in an unenviable position when this clears up. People aren’t going to forget or necessarily forgive bad behaviour very quickly.
Be healthy and live well. Take care of yourself and your family. Try to feed your better nature. Call your friends. Be a good neighbour. Drop a note at an elderly person’s door with your phone number and tell them to call you if they need help, or if they’re just feeling scared or lonely and want to talk. Don’t mock, and respect people’s need for distance. If you get scared, talk to someone, it’ll help.
This, too, will pass. I hope and pray it does so quickly.
Take care, be strong, and maybe stop reading that stuff, it’s messing with you.
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Date Mar. 15 2020 0:17:13
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BarkellWH
Posts: 3458
Joined: Jul. 12 2009
From: Washington, DC
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RE: predictions (in reply to Escribano)
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quote:
You're losing it. Calm down, drink lots of water and get a good sleep. The end of the World can wait [from Northern Italy].
My wife Marta and I have been in Arizona for close to a month during this crisis. Two things have made both of us feel fortunate.
First, that magnificent video, playing on both the news and the internet, of the apartment complex in Italy with the occupants out on their balconies singing, including the Italian national anthem, represented a spirit that we admired greatly.
Second, today was a beautiful spring day in Arizona, and Marta and I drove about 60 miles out in the desert to see a gorgeous display of wildflowers. Arizona had a rainy February, and the wildflowers are in full bloom. Magnificent!
Things like the two events mentioned above demonstrate to us that life, even in adversity, is worth meeting on positive terms, the hoarders, naysayers, and negativity notwithstanding. Keep a positive attitude, and we'll get through this.
Bill
_____________________________
And the end of the fight is a tombstone white,
With the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear, "A fool lies here,
Who tried to hustle the East."
--Rudyard Kipling
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Date Mar. 15 2020 22:22:56
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RobF
Posts: 1611
Joined: Aug. 24 2017
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RE: predictions (in reply to BarkellWH)
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quote:
...life, even in adversity, is worth meeting on positive terms, the hoarders, naysayers, and negativity notwithstanding. Keep a positive attitude, and we'll get through this.
Cheers, Bill, and Thanks.
I lost my mother a few years ago. I was with her when the diagnosis was given and never left her side until she passed. I was honoured to hold her when she took her last breath. In all the months of suffering she went through, not once did that woman complain or take a negative view. I can only hope that when my time comes, I’ll have the strength to be half the man that she was.
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Date Mar. 15 2020 22:53:02
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Richard Jernigan
Posts: 3430
Joined: Jan. 20 2004
From: Austin, Texas USA
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RE: predictions (in reply to BarkellWH)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: BarkellWH
life, even in adversity, is worth meeting on positive terms, the hoarders, naysayers, and negativity notwithstanding. Keep a positive attitude, and we'll get through this.
Bill
Well said, Bill.
The statistics published on COVID-19 are for confirmed cases, where the presence of the virus has been verified by lab test. We don't know how many unverified cases there are, or have been. Of the verified cases, about 15% of people over the age of 80 have died.
The proliferation of the virus in the USA follows the earliest stages of exponential growth in the worst situations: China, Iran, Italy. Larisa's best girl friend lives a bit north of Venice, so the apalling situation there is seldom out of our thoughts as we text back and forth daily. Over the weekend Austin schools and the university closed for indefinite periods, a city ban on large gatherings cancelled concerts, the hugely attended and economically very important SXSW festival, the motorcycle GP race, and a long list of others. The number of verified COVID-19 cases here is low at the moment, but increasing.
I'm 82. Though I'm in reasonably good health, my parents lived to be 94 and 97, one of my mother's sisters lived to 101, the other to 103--the 15% statistic motivated me considerably. First thing I did was lay in about two weeks' supply of groceries, laundry detergent, etc. Hand sanitizer and rubbing alcohol had been completely bought up by panickers and price gougers, but there was an easy work-around: order 1.75 liters of Everclear (95% ethanol) delivered to my door from the wine and spirits shop.
Next on the agenda was an appointment with my lawyer to update my will. It is important to me that my remaining assets be divided in a somewhat unconventional way--a purely emotional, one might even say irrational motive--but one that matters to me. It looks like that will get taken care of. A side benefit is that I'm finally taking my lawyer's advice to set up a medical power of attorney and a living will.
Getting these things taken care of considerably relieved the stress of urgency. I reminded myself that I had faced nearly certain death a few times in the past, without totally losing it. Still, I found myself to be more on edge than usual-not a healthy position to be in.
Then it occurred to me: I was focusing on the 15% probability of dying. Logically equivalent, but much better sounding is the implicit 85% probability of survival. Those are probably better odds than activities I was involved in up to about age 40: scuba diving in remote deep caves, paramilitary combat, a short span of years living outside the law, and riding motorcycles way, way too fast and too far.
Stress level went down considerably when I shifted my attention from the dark side to the brighter side. While slicing the serrano peppers, tomatoes and onions for huevos revueltos a la mexicana tonight, i felt a tinge of the old joy of simply being alive at that particular moment.
"What fools these mortals be!"
Immortal Puck's repeated tagline in Shakespeare's "A Midsummer Night's Dream"
When I went out to the mailbox this afternoon I encountered my new neighbors walking their dogs. They insisted on giving me their phone numbers, and urged me to call them if there was anything they could do for me. Nice people.
Be well, my friends.
Look to the brighter side.
RNJ
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Date Mar. 17 2020 6:31:27
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